The 18th Xuanyuan Automotive Blue Book Forum, themed "Turning Point," was held in Guangzhou from May 15 to May 17. Xu Changming, a senior economist at the State Information Center, delivered a speech at the event.
He noted that China's automotive market is currently in the third phase of "fluctuating, slow development." The domestic industrial landscape is far from stable, and market competition is expected to be exceptionally fierce. The profitability of automakers will be crucial for navigating the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. Concurrently, internationalization presents a significant opportunity for Chinese automakers. The proportion of overseas markets is projected to gradually increase, forming a new pattern characterized by "domestic stability and international growth."
Xu Changming emphasized that internationalization represents a major future opportunity for Chinese automakers. In 2025, China exported 7.1 million vehicles. In the first four months of 2026, exports reached 3.13 million units, a year-on-year increase of 62%, with full-year exports expected to maintain rapid growth. Currently, Chinese-brand vehicles have achieved a 6.5% penetration rate in global overseas markets, with penetration reaching as high as 13.6% in emerging markets.
He believes internationalization will continue its positive development trajectory, primarily based on three core reasons:
1. Vast potential in international markets, especially emerging markets: The global automotive market adds approximately 10 million vehicles every decade, with recent growth primarily driven by emerging markets. Regions such as Latin America, the Middle East, ASEAN, and Africa will see a continuous rise in car ownership per thousand people as per capita GDP increases. For instance, Latin America, with a population of 660 million, currently has annual sales of just over 4 million vehicles. Africa, with 1.5 billion people, has annual sales of only 1 million vehicles. As these economies develop, they are poised to unleash significant new demand.
2. Rapidly improving global competitiveness of Chinese-brand vehicles: The cost-performance ratio, rich feature sets of Chinese cars, and the safety performance of their electric vehicles are highly attractive to young consumers worldwide. In Thailand, Chinese-brand electric vehicles account for 86% of sales. In Malaysia, features like intelligent cockpits in Chinese cars far surpass those in comparable models. Positive word-of-mouth and high cost-effectiveness give Chinese-brand vehicles strong competitiveness in emerging markets.
3. Active internationalization efforts across the industry chain, with complete vehicles as a representative sector.
Xu Changming stated that the domestic auto market will undergo structural adjustments characterized by fluctuating, slow growth, while internationalization is the key for Chinese automakers to alter the global landscape. In the future, Chinese automakers need to stabilize their domestic base while seizing explosive growth opportunities in emerging markets. Through steady and solid global expansion, they can achieve high-quality development, evolving from "product export" to "export of industrial and ecological chains."
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