Abstract
Blue Owl Capital Inc. will release its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 05, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, current quarter forecasts, segment dynamics, and consensus expectations.
Market Forecast
Consensus compiled estimates indicate Blue Owl Capital Inc.’s current quarter revenue at USD 714.97 million, up 15.78% year over year, with EBIT estimated at USD 382.67 million, EPS at USD 0.23, and modeled margin metrics implying stability; prior year-over-year forecast changes suggest EBIT growth of 31.54% and EPS growth of 5.15. The company’s main business highlights center on fee-based income from management fees, supported by resilient fundraising and platform breadth, with prospects for stable gross profit margin and net margin; the most promising segment is fee-related earnings tied to management fee, net, which contributed USD 645.66 million last quarter amid durable demand.
Last Quarter Review
Blue Owl Capital Inc. reported last quarter revenue of USD 686.997 million, gross profit margin of 57.63%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 6.31 million, net profit margin of 0.87%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.22, with year-over-year revenue growth of 20.88%. A notable highlight was EBIT of USD 392.25 million, which exceeded estimates by USD 24.28 million, reflecting robust operating performance. Main business highlights showed “management fee, net” revenue of USD 645.66 million, while “administrative, transaction and other fees” were USD 82.15 million; realized performance revenue was USD 0.19 million.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Management Fee, Net
Management fee, net remains the core revenue engine for Blue Owl Capital Inc., underpinned by sticky fee-paying assets under management, consistent capital formation, and broad distribution across institutional and private wealth channels. The last quarter’s USD 645.66 million in management fee, net demonstrates the scale of fee-related earnings and the company’s ability to maintain pricing and retention. For the current quarter, modeled revenue of USD 714.97 million implies continued fee capture as assets season and newly raised capital begins to accrue management fees, supporting EBIT of USD 382.67 million. Stable gross profit margin at 57.63% in the previous quarter suggests disciplined expense management and operating leverage on revenues, although the low net profit margin of 0.87% reflects near-term impacts from non-operating items and GAAP-specific adjustments that do not fully capture cash-generation from fee-related earnings. As the firm advances capital deployment and crystallizes fee flows, adjusted EPS consensus of USD 0.23 signals a modest uplift from USD 0.22 last quarter, consistent with fee momentum and the durability of the management fee base. The business should be most sensitive this quarter to net inflows versus redemptions, near-term origination trends in private credit, and any seasonal expense patterns that could affect margin translation from revenue to EBIT and distributable earnings.
Most Promising Business: Fee-Related Earnings from Scaled Platforms
The most promising pillar is fee-related earnings generated by scaled platforms across credit and real assets, a dynamic evidenced by the prior quarter’s EBIT beat and resilient management fee revenue. With consensus modeling EBIT at USD 382.67 million and revenue at USD 714.97 million, the implied year-over-year uplift points to continued fee accrual from prior fundraising vintages and steady origination pipelines in private credit. Fee-related earnings tend to be less volatile than performance fees and are driven by contracted management fees over multi-year horizons, which should aid visibility into adjusted EPS, estimated at USD 0.23. While realized performance fees were minimal at USD 0.00 million last quarter, fee-related earnings from management fee, net at USD 645.66 million underscore a predominantly annuity-like revenue profile. The near-term growth is likely to hinge on asset gathering velocity, platform cross-sell into private wealth, and scaled distribution via insurance channels, which together can sustain top-line growth and operating margin stability even amid fluctuations in transaction-related fees.
Key Share Price Drivers This Quarter
The stock’s near-term reaction will likely be most influenced by the interplay between revenue growth delivery versus the 15.78% year-over-year forecast, EBIT performance relative to the USD 382.67 million estimate, and the translation of fee revenue into adjusted EPS at USD 0.23. A demonstration of steady gross profit margin near last quarter’s 57.63% would reinforce operating discipline and the capacity to convert fee revenue into profitability; alongside that, investors will watch whether net profit margin normalizes from last quarter’s 0.87% GAAP level. Segment mix will be important, as management fee, net drives the majority of revenue, while administrative, transaction and other fees at USD 82.15 million can introduce variability tied to deal flow and market conditions. Any disclosure of assets under management growth, fee-paying assets under management trends, or net inflows will be key signals for forward fee momentum, with potential read-throughs for fiscal 2026 earnings trajectory. Finally, commentary on origination in private credit and fundraising cadence across real assets will shape expectations for margin durability and distributable earnings, which often correlate with investor sentiment around the stock.
Analyst Opinions
Analyst previews and ratings collected in the defined window do not provide a consistent majority view for January 2026; available consensus estimates support a neutral stance around revenue of USD 714.97 million, EBIT of USD 382.67 million, and EPS of USD 0.23 for the current quarter. In the absence of a dominant bullish or bearish skew within the designated period, the primary focus among institutions is on the durability of fee-related earnings, the alignment of EBIT with consensus, and the steadiness of adjusted EPS. Well-followed analysts emphasize fee visibility, the balance of management fee strength against limited performance fee contribution last quarter, and the importance of origination and fundraising cadence to sustain the modeled year-over-year revenue increase of 15.78%. Collectively, the central debate for the upcoming release is whether Blue Owl Capital Inc. can maintain its revenue and EBIT growth trajectory while stabilizing GAAP net margin, thereby validating the fee-centric business model’s predictability into fiscal 2026.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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