Bitcoin exchange-traded funds began 2026 with strong momentum, recording net inflows exceeding $1 billion in the first two trading days, a phenomenon analysts attributed to a resurgence in investor risk appetite. However, this optimistic trend quickly unraveled, with three consecutive days of capital outflows introducing fresh uncertainty into Bitcoin's price outlook.
According to data from Farside Investors, the 11 US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively recorded a net outflow of $1.128 billion over the past three days. This sustained period of capital flight has nearly erased the $1.16 billion in net inflows recorded during the year's first two trading sessions.
In other words, the year-to-date inflows for Bitcoin ETFs have essentially flatlined, with the initial optimism being superseded by the reality of fund flows. These trends indicate a lack of conviction among institutional investors and undermine the bullish prospects suggested by the early-month inflows.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based cryptocurrency exchange Giottus, stated in an email to CoinDesk, "ETF flows are displaying a distinctly tactical character, with periods of inflows promptly followed by modest outflows. This reflects fund rotation behavior rather than purchases driven by strong conviction."
He added, "The macroeconomic environment has also tightened risk appetite, with traders continuously awaiting positive macro signals. The overarching risk-off sentiment is affecting not just equities but has also spilled over into the cryptocurrency markets."
Against the backdrop of ETF outflows, the cryptocurrency market has lapsed into a risk-off state, with Bitcoin's price retreating from a high above $94,600 on Monday to around $90,000. CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin fell below $89,300 during Thursday's trading session. CoinDesk indices tied to meme coins and decentralized finance tokens have similarly pulled back from Monday's highs.
Market volatility could intensify later on Friday following the release of US monthly employment data and a Supreme Court ruling on import taxes.
The US Non-Farm Payrolls report for December is scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC on Friday. This data could influence market bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and, consequently, demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Although Bitcoin is touted by many as "digital gold," its price has historically shown a stronger correlation with the Nasdaq index.
According to FactSet forecasts, the data is expected to show the US economy added 55,000 jobs in December, down from 64,000 in November and below the 12-month average of 77,800. The unemployment rate is projected to edge down slightly from 4.6% to 4.5%. The year-on-year increase in average hourly earnings is likely to rise to 3.6% from 3.5% in November.
Iliya Kalchev, an analyst at Nexo Dispatch, said in an email, "Weak US labor market data could provide support for risk assets; whereas if the jobs data comes in strong, cryptocurrencies and the broader market might maintain a range-bound pattern heading into the weekly close."
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