Key Points: Since the Iran war began in late February, OPEC member crude oil production has plunged by over 30%, equivalent to a daily cut of 9.7 million barrels. OPEC has revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.4 million barrels per day to approximately 1.2 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that global oil demand will decrease by 420,000 barrels per day this year. The IEA warns that the supply gap is rapidly depleting global crude inventories; oil price volatility may intensify ahead of the peak summer demand season. In its latest monthly report released Wednesday, OPEC stated that its member crude production declined further in April. Since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, the overall production drop has exceeded 30%. Concurrently, OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth expectation for 2026 from the previous 1.4 million barrels per day to about 1.2 million barrels per day. Due to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effectively halting crude exports from the Persian Gulf, global oil demand growth has been significantly suppressed. OPEC crude output had already plummeted by 7.9 million barrels per day in March, followed by a further reduction of 1.7 million barrels per day in April. Since the war began, total OPEC production has cumulatively fallen by over 30%, a cut of 9.7 million barrels per day. The monthly report released this Wednesday may be the last OPEC report to include data from the United Arab Emirates, as the UAE formally withdrew from the organization on May 1. The International Energy Agency, on the same day, released its latest data: affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure, over 14 million barrels per day of crude production capacity from Gulf oil producers has been shut in, with cumulative supply losses exceeding 1 billion barrels. Crude Oil Production of Gulf Countries During the Iran War (Unit: Thousand Barrels/Day)
Gulf Oil Exporters February Production March Production April Production Cumulative Reduction (Feb-Apr) Decline (Feb-Apr)
Iran 3241 3065 2854 -387 -12%
Iraq 4188 1679 1389 -2799 -66%
Kuwait 2582 1160 600 -1982 -76%
Saudi Arabia 10112 7726 6768 -3344 -33%
United Arab Emirates 3419 1892 2023 -1396 -40%
Data Source: OPEC In contrast to OPEC's relatively optimistic outlook, the Paris-based, predominantly Western International Energy Agency forecasts that global oil demand will decrease by 420,000 barrels per day in 2026. The IEA stated that the global crude market was already in a state of oversupply at the beginning of 2026, so the actual supply-demand gap is not as large as it appears. Additionally, both producing and consuming countries have taken measures to mitigate the supply shock. The IEA noted that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have rerouted some crude exports to ports that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Oil producers outside the Middle East, particularly the United States, have seized the opportunity to significantly increase production, with exports reaching record highs. Government and commercial crude stockpiles are also helping to offset the supply losses. However, due to the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the widening supply gap, global crude inventories are being depleted at a record pace. In March and April alone, global inventories fell by 250 million barrels, equivalent to a daily draw of 4 million barrels. The International Energy Agency warns that as the peak summer oil consumption period approaches, price volatility in the crude oil market may further intensify.
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