Investing in technology companies founded by Elon Musk—whether it's Tesla, SpaceX, or the recently merged xAI—is less a bet on financial fundamentals outperforming the market and more a vote of confidence in his long-term growth vision. The quintessential example of this "Musk faith" is currently SpaceX. Investors are flocking to assets linked to SpaceX through Tesla and the Destiny Tech 100 ETF, not merely for today's satellite broadband empire and rocket launch services, but to pay a substantial premium for a future blueprint that includes "a million satellites, massive space-based cloud servers, a solar-powered orbital AI computing system, even a lunar satellite factory," and ultimately, the vision of a Kardashev Type II civilization.
SpaceX is reportedly considering a public listing around June, potentially raising up to $50 billion, which could become the largest IPO in history. Its valuation is projected to reach as high as $1.5 trillion, nearing Tesla's $1.6 trillion market cap. The ultimate destiny for these three Musk-founded entities—Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI—may be a "Musk super business empire" formed through their integration. As the primary bottleneck for global AI data centers shifts from "AI chips" to "power systems and deployment," SpaceX's narrative of "placing data centers in orbit powered by solar energy" is entering a phase of engineering trials. Capital markets are in urgent need of larger, more stable capital pools and more unified organizational structures.
In Musk's infrastructure plan for AI computing power, the next significant leap for artificial intelligence might not occur on land but in space, as the AI boom increasingly confronts limitations in infrastructure scale and energy supply. Musk recently responded to followers on X, outlining a vision involving annual launches of megaton-level satellites, each equipped with 100 kilowatts of power, to add 100 gigawatts of AI computing capacity per year with no operational or maintenance costs, connected via high-bandwidth lasers to the Starlink constellation. Further, building satellite factories on the Moon and using mass drivers to launch AI satellites could push computing capacity beyond 100 terawatts annually, representing a major step toward a Kardashev Type II civilization.
With Musk frequently updating progress on space-based AI data centers, large-scale energy storage, AI, Full Self-Driving, Robotaxi, and the revolutionary Optimus humanoid robot, the world's richest person seems to be weaving "commercial space launches + Starlink communications + orbital AI computing systems/large models + energy/storage + electric vehicles + autonomous driving + robotics manufacturing" into a single, financeable, and coherent "super vertical integration asset chain." This strategy aims to amplify leverage simultaneously in both capital markets and industrial sectors. Unifying the hottest global investment themes—AI, communications, space, energy, and robotics—into a "full-stack infrastructure platform" would significantly aid the pricing of a potential super-sized SpaceX IPO, elevate Tesla's valuation, support pre- and mid-IPO roadshows, and shape the investor base.
SpaceX plans to launch an astounding one million satellites, intended to function as a distributed, space-grade cloud computing super-server system. These orbital data centers would reportedly leverage solar power to process immense AI workloads. Musk believes achieving this necessitates building a super satellite factory on the Moon, utilizing electromagnetic launchers to deploy AI satellites. Such ambitious, sci-fi-like visions undoubtedly require vast amounts of cash, and the potential SpaceX IPO is positioned as the source of this colossal funding, potentially setting a record for fundraising size.
From a core business perspective, SpaceX today is a profitable satellite communications and space exploration-focused rocket launch company with a significant lead over potential competitors. Media reports citing sources indicate the unicorn achieved approximately $8 billion in EBITDA last year, with cumulative sales around $150-$160 billion. Its Starlink satellite broadband service accounts for 50% to 80% of total sales. For a space enterprise with 10 million global users, effectively operating as a large broadband provider, an implied group profit margin of around 50% is impressive.
Based on a realistic $1 trillion valuation—using the preliminary figure from SpaceX's recent merger with xAI—the company appears poised to capture a significant share of the global telecom market rapidly. However, some Wall Street analysts view the reality differently: satellite connectivity systems complement traditional network infrastructure rather than replace it. Most consumers in developed markets find fixed-line broadband sufficient for home use, with 4G and 5G widely available elsewhere. Demand for satellite broadband primarily comes from underserved populations and regions, which, while not a small market, could become overcrowded in the medium term. Amazon recently received FCC approval to add about 4,500 satellites to its planned constellation, bringing the total to just under 8,000, with full deployment expected by 2029. Concurrently, China is developing two massive low-Earth orbit networks—one for government use and another for international clients—totaling tens of thousands of satellites.
For Starlink, the most viable near-term path likely involves scaling "direct-to-device satellite internet" capabilities through partnerships and enhancing its own services for specific scenarios. To boost SpaceX's valuation, however, Starlink aims to evolve from a "satellite broadband provider" into a "global communications platform for mobile devices," potentially including a proprietary smartphone. Although SpaceX would hold a substantive monopoly in satellite communications and potential space-based AI data centers upon listing, well-funded competitors possess the capability to erode Musk's moat. China's commercial space program, backed by state-linked entities, enhances its chances of success. Amazon, focusing on low-cost user terminals, could challenge Starlink on price. Musk's recent political entanglements also potentially cap the growth of Starlink's government and defense business outside its home market, prompting European nations like France, Germany, and Italy to explore sovereign alternatives.
Threats to Starlink's dominance may also arise internally. The merger with xAI exposes SpaceX to new regulatory and financial risks. Reports indicate xAI recorded a $1.5 billion net loss in a recent quarter and burned through approximately $8 billion in cash over nine months, making revenue and profit growth for the combined group critical. Regulatory risks also persist, with investigations into the Grok chatbot in multiple jurisdictions. These factors, coupled with limited financial disclosure, complicate valuation.
Assuming 70% of SpaceX's recent $1 trillion merger valuation is attributed to Starlink, aligning with its sales contribution, the satellite business would be valued at a staggering $700 billion. Analyst estimates suggest Starlink could generate about $16 billion in sales and $11 billion in EBITDA this year. A $700 billion enterprise value implies a price-to-sales ratio of 44x and an EBITDA multiple of 64x, comparable to high-flying stocks like Palantir Technologies and far exceeding the single-digit multiples of established telecom groups. While Starlink's growth potential arguably justifies a premium, supporting these numbers is challenging. Applying a discounted long-term multiple suggests Starlink would need to achieve roughly $39 billion in EBITDA by 2030 to justify the valuation, significantly above even optimistic projections like Morgan Stanley's forecast of $25 billion EBITDA by 2030.
Even if Musk successfully executes a trillion-dollar market debut, a smooth journey afterward is not guaranteed. Investing in Musk's companies often involves pricing based on the probability of realizing sci-fi-like visions and Musk's execution capability, rather than current earnings. This "Musk faith" can inflate valuations, as seen with Tesla being valued as an AI/robotics platform rather than a car company. However, while this faith can ignite a bull run, it is not a perpetual engine. Sustained super-bull markets ultimately depend on the continuous translation of vision into verifiable milestones. SpaceX now faces a typical test of investor loyalty and business durability. Competitors are challenging Starlink's quasi-monopoly, and ambitious valuations require equally ambitious future performance. Faith can launch a valuation into the stratosphere, but operational execution and competitive dynamics will determine if it remains there. A SpaceX IPO at a $1.5 trillion valuation would likely replicate this "current monopoly + ultra-long-term sci-fi narrative" pricing model. Conversely, any delays in technology deployment, increased regulatory hurdles, competitive catch-up, or escalation of Musk's political and governance controversies could rapidly transform "super premium" into "super volatility."
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