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Earning Preview: Mosaic this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 5.61%, and institutional views are predominantly bullishAbstract
Mosaic Company will release its fourth‑quarter 2025 results on February 24, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates last quarter’s financials, the latest top‑line and EPS forecasts, and recent analyst views to frame what investors should watch in the upcoming print.Market Forecast
Consensus for Mosaic Company’s current quarter points to total revenue of 3.07 billion, EBIT of 314.86 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.49, implying year‑over‑year changes of 5.61% for revenue, 16.88% for EBIT, and −13.46% for adjusted EPS; forecast gross profit margin and net profit metrics were not disclosed. Mosaic’s main business mix remains anchored by Fertilizers and Phosphates, with last quarter’s revenue contributions of 1.59 billion and 1.29 billion; the near‑term outlook hinges on pricing discipline and input‑cost normalization across the portfolio. The most promising segment into this print is Potash, which generated 694.80 million last quarter, where affordability trends and resilient demand are expected to support year‑over‑year improvement in Q4 despite broader headwinds.Last Quarter Review
Mosaic Company’s prior quarter delivered revenue of 3.45 billion, a gross profit margin of 16.00%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 411.00 million, a net profit margin of 11.92%, and adjusted EPS of $1.04, representing a year‑over‑year increase of 205.88%. A notable highlight was adjusted EPS exceeding consensus by approximately $0.06, while EBIT reached 498.80 million, up 137.52% year‑over‑year. Main business contributions were led by Fertilizers at 1.59 billion, followed by Phosphates at 1.29 billion and Potash at 694.80 million; segment‑level year‑over‑year changes were not disclosed in the quarterly breakdown, though total company revenue grew 22.81% year‑over‑year.Current Quarter Outlook
Fertilizers Segment
Fertilizers is Mosaic Company’s largest revenue contributor, generating 1.59 billion in the last reported quarter, and it will remain central to the earnings discussion. Pricing and volume cadence within this segment often reflect the balance between global crop nutrient affordability and distribution dynamics in key markets. The near‑term operational picture includes management’s ongoing response to input‑cost volatility, with sulfur pricing having influenced phosphate downstream operations and portfolio margin mix; although any normalization in input costs would be a material lever for margin recovery. As the company navigates short‑term production adjustments, the trajectory of shipments into Brazil and the U.S. distribution channels will be important for assessing how realized prices and volumes track relative to the forecasted 5.61% revenue growth; sustained throughput in core distribution lanes could provide a buffer against margin pressure. The quarter-on-quarter growth rate of GAAP net income last quarter was 17.00%, underscoring sequential improvement; if Fertilizers can hold its revenue base while cost pressures ease, performance could remain supportive of consolidated earnings quality.Potash: Near-Term Upside Candidate
Potash delivered 694.80 million last quarter and has emerged as a potential bright spot into the print as affordability supports demand across key regions. Recent analyst commentary points to stable pricing and modest gains in volumes, supported by cost‑effective nutrient application relative to alternative inputs, which can underpin price realization even amid broader commodity choppiness. The operational backdrop includes the company’s focus on reliable output from core assets and disciplined supply to match the demand tempo; a steady supply profile historically helps stabilize margin performance when market prices are range‑bound. Into this quarter, the potash narrative is constructive: affordability has improved relative to prior periods, and large-scale customers appear to have sufficient appetite to absorb shipments at current price points, a theme that lines up with calls for resilient Potash profitability compared with headwinds faced in Phosphates. While not all unit‑level year‑over‑year numbers are available, positive tone from multiple institutions suggests Potash could counterbalance some softness elsewhere in the mix if price and volume hold together through the quarter.Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
Two operational themes are likely to drive Mosaic Company’s stock reaction when results print: input‑cost relief versus persistence, and the cadence of production and shipments, particularly in Brazil. The company recently extended the suspension of single super phosphate production at Fospar and Araxá in Brazil for an additional 30 days and indicated it would not purchase sulfur in Brazil in the near term; this reflects the sensitivity of phosphate operations to sulfur costs and the prudence of pausing to avoid uneconomic runs. On the other side of the ledger, several institutions believe phosphate stripping margins are bottoming as demand normalizes, which, coupled with an improving cost backdrop, can set up margin stabilization in the months ahead. The quarter’s EPS will also be shaped by mix effects: margin‑dense potash volumes can offset softer phosphate contributions, while consolidated EBIT projections of 314.86 million (up 16.88% year‑over‑year) indicate that operating income could be resilient even if headline EPS declines year‑over‑year by 13.46% due to mix and timing. Investors should pay attention to management’s commentary on Brazil distribution activity, sulfur procurement plans, and any updates on operational incidents, as these can materially influence near‑term cost curves and realized margins. If management signals easing input costs and steady potash demand, the market may look through short‑term EPS compression to a healthier second‑half trajectory; conversely, indications of prolonged input‑cost tightness or shipping disruptions could temper the constructive revenue outlook.Analyst Opinions
Bullish views outweigh bearish commentary by a wide margin in the year‑to‑date coverage window, with recent upgrades and maintained buys dominating cautious takes. Scotiabank upgraded Mosaic to Sector Outperform with a view that phosphate stripping margins are bottoming as demand normalizes and that potash affordability remains supportive of firm market conditions; while they do flag potential caps on further price gains from new second‑half production, their stance is constructive for the nearer term. UBS’s Lucas Beaumont reiterated a Buy rating and a $38 price target, emphasizing the potential for Potash stability to underpin consolidated results even as Phosphates navigate sulfur‑linked cost pressures; the thesis assumes manageable operational execution and a balanced pricing environment. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating and lifted its price target to $32, citing incremental confidence in the company’s ability to stabilize margins through disciplined supply and targeted cost management; their analysis highlights Potash as a margin anchor and points to the prospect of improved phosphate economics as input costs normalize. Wolfe Research kept an Outperform rating with a $37 target, focusing on the operating leverage that can emerge if the company sustains potash volumes and edges back toward favorable margin structure in phosphates; their view is that the current EBIT forecast of 314.86 million reflects a realistic base with upside if operational conditions brighten. Barclays’ Benjamin Theurer maintained a Buy rating with a $35 target, framing the short‑term EPS pressure as largely transitory and linked to cost and mix rather than demand destruction, a setup in which Potash resilience is expected to carry through to consolidated performance. The weight of these opinions signals a constructive backdrop into the print: while the consensus adjusted EPS estimate is $0.49 (down 13.46% year‑over‑year), the revenue forecast of 3.07 billion (up 5.61% year‑over‑year) and EBIT growth of 16.88% suggest that operating health is improving beneath headline EPS, a pattern consistent with margin stabilization and balanced supply‑demand conditions across the portfolio.In synthesizing these views, the bull case is anchored on three pillars. First, affordability dynamics are favoring Potash, with multiple firms expecting stable demand and pricing that can keep volumes intact and margins supported, creating a reliable ballast for consolidated earnings. Second, the phosphate margin story, while challenged by sulfur costs, shows signs of bottoming according to upgraded ratings and buy reiterations, which sets up a pathway for improvement as input procurement becomes more flexible and production resumes at economically viable levels. Third, the current EBIT forecast indicates underlying operating strength even as adjusted EPS compresses year‑over‑year due to mix and timing; if management’s commentary on cost normalization and shipment cadence is constructive, several analysts see scope for EPS recovery later in the year. Taken together, the institutional stance leans toward earnings quality improving beneath the surface, with revenue growth and operating income trajectory providing confidence that short‑term volatility can give way to steadier performance as cost curves ease and Potash continues to anchor profitability.
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