Market Analysis On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Trump stated that the ongoing Greenland agreement would grant the U.S. "all desired military access rights." Trump also threatened "strong retaliation" if European nations were to sell off U.S. assets in response to tariff threats related to Greenland. Regarding economic data, the final U.S. GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth for the third quarter of 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the preliminary reading of 4.3%, marking the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in November, both meeting expectations. In the labor market, U.S. initial jobless claims for the previous week were 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000.
Futures Market and Trading Volume: On 2026-01-22, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 1,097.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,087.58 yuan/gram, a decrease of 0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The daily trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest at 129,725 contracts. During the previous night session, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 1,087.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,104.52 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.56% from the previous afternoon's close.
On 2026-01-22, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at 23,037.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 23,339.00 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 0.90% from the previous trading day's close. The daily trading volume was 770,373 contracts, with open interest at 307,790 contracts. During the previous night session, the main Shanghai silver contract opened at 23,150 yuan/kilogram and closed at 24,315 yuan/kilogram, a significant increase of 4.18% from the previous afternoon's close.
U.S. Treasury Yields and Spread Monitoring: On 2026-01-22, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.241%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.646%, also unchanged from the previous day.
Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold and Silver Position and Volume Changes: On 2026-01-22, for the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 2,286 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions decreased by 917 contracts. The total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 550,853 contracts, a change of 0.74% from the previous day. For silver, on the Ag2604 contract, long positions increased by 7,551 contracts, while short positions increased by 4,712 contracts. The total trading volume for silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,820,246 contracts, a decrease of 6.56% from the previous day.
Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking: For precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings stood at 1,077.66 tonnes yesterday, unchanged from the previous trading day. Silver ETF holdings were 16,166 tonnes, a decrease of 56 tonnes from the previous day.
Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking: Futures-Spot Basis: On 2026-01-22, regarding domestic premiums, the domestic gold premium was 9.99 yuan/gram, while the domestic silver premium was -332.83 yuan/kilogram. Gold-Silver Ratio: The price ratio of the main Shanghai gold and silver contracts was approximately 46.60 yesterday, a change of -1.32% from the previous trading day. The external gold-silver ratio was 51.24, a change of 3.81% from the previous trading day.
Fundamentals: Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D Market Monitoring: On the previous trading day (2026-01-22), the trading volume for gold on the SGE was 57,076 kilograms, a significant decrease of 40.22% from the previous day. The trading volume for silver was 417,564 kilograms, a slight decrease of 1.28% from the previous day. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, while silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms.
Strategy Gold: Cautiously Bullish Market risk sentiment is currently building, which may enhance investment demand for gold. Therefore, it is expected that gold prices will likely maintain a volatile but strengthening trend in the near term. The Au2604 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 1,090 yuan/gram to 1,170 yuan/gram.
Silver: Cautiously Bullish Currently, silver prices are showing slightly stronger gains compared to gold due to the resurgence in risk sentiment, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices themselves are also forecast to maintain a volatile but strengthening pattern. The Ag2604 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range of 23,800 yuan/kilogram to 25,000 yuan/kilogram.
Arbitrage: Sell the Gold-Silver Ratio on Rallies Options: Temporarily Hold
Comments