COSCO SHIP DEV (02866) fell more than 4%, trading at HKD 1.2 by press time with a turnover of HKD 13.68 million. Market sentiment weakened as the October U.S. CPI and employment data were not released due to the government shutdown and may never be published due to the lack of actual surveys. Meanwhile, several Fed officials adopted a hawkish stance, stating that rate cuts remain uncertain. Consequently, market expectations for a rate cut have cooled significantly, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping to 42.9%, nearly 50 percentage points lower than mid-October.
Tianfeng Securities noted that as of June 30, COSCO SHIP DEV had RMB 5.1 billion in fixed-rate yuan loans, USD 1.4 billion (equivalent to RMB 10.1 billion) in fixed-rate dollar loans, RMB 10.4 billion in floating-rate yuan loans, and USD 6.9 billion (equivalent to RMB 49.7 billion) in floating-rate dollar loans. The report suggests that if the Fed cuts rates, interest expenses on floating-rate dollar loans could decline directly—a 1 percentage point drop in USD rates may reduce interest payments by nearly RMB 500 million, significantly impacting total profits.
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