With US copper futures repeatedly reaching new highs, European copper mining stocks—long underperforming in recent years—are set to close their best annual performance since 2016. For copper-related equities in global markets, whether the strong rally can continue into next year and surpass the post-2016 peak largely hinges on whether US copper futures can keep setting new records and whether LME copper prices sustain their upward trajectory through 2026, potentially breaking historical highs.
Analysts from Citigroup Inc. highlight Glencore Plc as their top pick for 2026, projecting a 15% upside over the next 12 months, driven by the company's efforts to ramp up copper production. Meanwhile, Oddo BHF views Rio Tinto Group's copper business as having an "exceptionally attractive roadmap," with its Simandou project in Guinea expected to boost iron ore output as it scales up.
Maxime Kogge, a mining analyst at Oddo, remains bullish on mining stocks for next year but cautions that a significant slowdown in Asia could dampen market sentiment. "Copper should remain a key positive driver in 2026 and one of the most promising investment themes," he noted, adding that other metals may carry higher risks.
A CITIC Securities report highlights that while gold and silver outperformed last week, other risk assets lagged. In 2025, precious metals led the rally across asset classes, driven by three phases: Trump-era tariff concerns in Q1, global disorder fears from broader tariffs in April-July, and Fed easing expectations since August. Unlike past cycles, the US economy now faces three long-term factors—tech revolution, fiscal expansion, and supply chain decoupling—leading to unprecedented growth-inflation divergence and political-economic complexity.
With midterm elections looming, the Fed's independence has taken a backseat, sustaining loose policy despite stubborn inflation. This has kept Fed easing expectations alive, widening Treasury yield spreads and supporting precious metals' strength. Looking ahead to 2026, CITIC suggests monitoring the global economic trajectory post-monetary and fiscal normalization, with copper poised to emerge as the next major commodity play after gold and silver.
**Related Hong Kong-listed copper stocks**: - **Copper Miners**: CMOC (03993), ZIJIN MINING (02899), MMG (01208), Jiangxi Copper (00358), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), Metallurgical Corp of China (01618). - **Copper Clad Laminate**: Kingboard Laminates (01888), Kingboard Holdings (00148).
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