The Hong Kong property market demonstrated a strong recovery in the first quarter of 2026, characterized by rising prices and transaction volumes. According to Centaline Property, the Carnival index recorded a 5.59% increase during the quarter, surpassing the full-year growth of 4.7% seen in 2025. The latest index reading stands at 153.67 points, representing a nearly 14% rebound from the previous low of 134.89 points.
Market analysts attribute the turnaround to interest rate cuts and the complete removal of property cooling measures, which have unleashed investment demand and interest from non-local buyers. The release of pent-up purchasing power has fueled robust sales across both primary and secondary markets. Centaline's market data reveals that the first quarter saw 17,006 transactions for private residential properties, marking a significant 63% year-on-year increase and reaching a fifteen-year high.
The primary market registered 5,354 transactions, a 47% increase year-on-year and the highest figure for the period in twenty-two years. The total transaction value surged 102% to HK$62.7 billion, setting a new historical record for the quarter. Combined transaction values for primary and secondary markets reached HK$154.5 billion, an increase of nearly 90% year-on-year and the second-highest first-quarter figure since records began in 1996.
The market also witnessed heightened activity from bulk buyers during the first quarter. A total of 271 bulk purchase transactions were recorded, involving 715 units with a combined value of HK$7.33 billion. This represents a 130% increase year-on-year and the highest level for the period in eighteen years. The majority of bulk transactions were concentrated in new development projects.
Market expectations remain positive for the second quarter, traditionally a peak season for property transactions. Industry experts project that transaction volumes could challenge the 20,000 level, while the Carnival index may approach 160 points. Additional momentum is expected from capital inflows into Hong Kong amid global geopolitical uncertainties, coupled with active participation from mainland Chinese buyers.
Bank valuations have also risen in response to the market rebound. According to the latest Centaline valuation data, valuations for ten major housing estates have increased sharply, with the highest gain reaching 20%. Valuation increases for prominent estates across Hong Kong Island and Kowloon range between 8% and 14.4%. The rapid adjustment in bank valuations reflects the intensity of the current market upswing. Market demand for properties is expected to strengthen further, supporting continued price growth in the second quarter.
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