Abstract
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals will report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on November 12, 2026 Post-Mkt; this preview summarizes last quarter’s results, consensus forecasts for the current quarter, and institutional views, with a focus on revenue, margins, EPS, and key collaboration drivers.
Market Forecast
Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 55.84 million US dollars, with an estimated year-over-year decline of 68.25%, and an estimated EPS of -1.59; EBIT is forecast at -211.56 million US dollars with an implied year-over-year contraction of 887.78%. Margin forecasts are not explicitly provided in the collected estimates; the company’s last reported gross margin was 100.00% and net profit margin was -258.17%, and the implied current-quarter margin path will depend on revenue recognition timing from collaboration agreements. Revenue is expected to be driven primarily by collaboration payments, with the Sarepta collaboration, Madrigal-related revenue, and Novartis-related revenue comprising the bulk of recent recognized sales; the most promising revenue line near term is the Sarepta collaboration at 26.40 million US dollars last quarter given its scale within the mix.
Last Quarter Review
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals reported last quarter revenue of 75.25 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -194.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of -258.17%, and adjusted EPS of -1.36, with revenue up 171.02% year over year and EPS down 7.94% year over year. A notable highlight was the substantial revenue surprise versus consensus driven by collaboration milestone and licensing recognition, resulting in revenue exceeding expectations by 20.96 million US dollars. Main business highlights showed revenue concentration in key partnerships: 26.40 million US dollars from the Sarepta collaboration, 25.00 million US dollars from Madrigal-related collaboration, 20.23 million US dollars from Novartis-related collaboration, and 1.24 million US dollars from Sanofi-related collaboration.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main Collaboration Revenue Base
The company’s near-term revenue continues to be tied to collaboration and licensing economics, which can be inherently lumpy due to milestone timing and accounting recognition. With last quarter’s gross margin at 100.00%, cost of revenue remains minimal when revenue is dominated by license and collaboration payments. However, the consensus revenue estimate of 55.84 million US dollars implies a sharp downshift from last quarter’s 75.25 million US dollars and a steep 68.25% year-over-year decline, signaling lighter milestone timing and potentially fewer upfront or progress-based recognitions this period. Given Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’ historical pattern, swings in collaboration revenue are common and can overshadow operating expense trends in any single quarter, while the company continues to invest in its RNAi pipeline.
Most Promising Near-Term Revenue Driver
Within the last reported mix, the Sarepta collaboration generated 26.40 million US dollars, representing the largest single contributor and a practical gauge for near-term potential. The size of this stream underscores how a single partner’s milestone schedule can heavily influence aggregate revenue and earnings in a given quarter. If project milestones or deliverables align late in the fiscal quarter, upside risk to the consensus could materialize; conversely, if timing shifts to subsequent periods, the revenue gap would likely widen. Madrigal- and Novartis-related collaboration revenue also remain important supplementary drivers, but given their smaller absolute size versus Sarepta last quarter, they may be less likely to offset a large milestone timing gap on their own.
Key Stock Price Sensitivities This Quarter
The stock is likely to react to the balance of recognized collaboration revenue versus operating expense burn, particularly R&D spend tied to the advancing pipeline. With consensus projecting EBIT at -211.56 million US dollars and EPS at -1.59, investors appear braced for continued operating losses consistent with an R&D-led profile. Given the sharp year-over-year deterioration implied by the EBIT and EPS growth rates in the forecast, the market may focus on the forward cadence of milestones and any guidance on upcoming deliverables that could normalize revenue run-rate in subsequent quarters. Any clinical updates that influence expected milestone timing, or any commentary on potential supplementary payments under existing agreements, could materially influence the post-earnings move even if headline results track close to consensus.
Analyst Opinions
Bullish views represent the clear majority among recent institutional commentaries. Multiple institutions have reiterated or initiated Buy ratings within the last six months, including a reiteration of a Buy rating and 100.00 US dollars price target by Morgan Stanley on the back of supportive ARO-INHBE data, a Buy rating and 120.00 US dollars target from H.C. Wainwright, and a newly initiated Buy from UBS with a 109.00 US dollars target. The breadth of these positive ratings suggests that institutions see the current quarter’s projected declines as driven largely by revenue recognition timing rather than structural deterioration, and that they remain focused on the value of Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’ RNAi pipeline and partnered programs. These bullish analysts are likely to assess the upcoming report through the lens of milestone cadence and the potential for subsequent quarters to recover a steadier flow of collaboration revenue, while near-term EPS and EBIT remain pressured by continued pipeline investment.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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