On May 21, gold prices experienced a pattern of probing lows before rebounding. The Asian session opened with a sharp decline to $4,452, but prices subsequently began to fluctuate and rise. Before the U.S. session, gold broke through the $4,500 level, reaching a high near $4,552, marking a rebound of $100. Gold ultimately closed at $4,543, forming a bullish candlestick on the daily chart.
On Thursday, May 21, gold staged a V-shaped reversal after touching a low of more than seven weeks, supported by a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields and a sharp drop in oil prices. Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's April meeting, released early in the morning, indicated that more policymakers are open to interest rate hikes. However, the market interpreted this as "bad news being fully priced in" and staged a rebound. Concurrently, positive signals emerged from U.S.-Iran negotiations, with reports that the agreement text is in its "final polishing stage," raising market expectations for a substantive breakthrough in the conflict.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations have entered the "final stage," and Iran has signaled its commitment to ensuring the security of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This expectation of geopolitical easing directly led to a sharp drop in crude oil (Brent fell 5.63%) and also implies that the "war risk premium" in gold is being squeezed out. However, as the negotiations have not yet been finalized, the market still faces the variable of "buying the rumor, selling the news."
From a technical perspective, gold has now climbed and stabilized above the previous day's breakdown level of $4,530. The early session shows continuation, but the upward space has not yet expanded significantly. Intraday, focus will first be on the battle around the recent high of $4,580-90. If this level is not breached, the hourly chart structure could potentially form a head and shoulders bottom pattern. However, a breakthrough would still require a catalyst from news developments. On the downside, watch for a retest of the $4,520-10 area. As long as the price holds above $4,500, a bias towards a volatile rebound can be maintained temporarily.
In summary, chasing rallies or selling into declines is not recommended today. It is advisable to approach the market with a range-trading mindset. Key attention should be paid to the pivotal role of the $4,500 level—as long as the price remains stable above it, the short-term bias leans towards a volatile rebound, and light long positions can be considered based on support. If, unexpectedly, a large bearish candlestick breaks below $4,500 again, caution is warranted for a potential decline towards $4,450 or even lower, at which point a defensive stance should be adopted. Additionally, as the weekend approaches, be aware that any announcement of a substantive agreement in the U.S.-Iran negotiations could trigger rapid fluctuations in gold prices. It is essential to use stop-loss orders.
Therefore, the following intraday trading suggestions are provided: Gold: Operate within the $4,450-$4,550 range, with a stop-loss of $10 and a take-profit target of $70-$80. If news triggers a unilateral breakout, one can directly follow the trend.
Key financial data and events to watch today, Thursday, May 21, 2026: 20:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 16 20:30 U.S. Housing Starts for April (Annualized) 20:30 U.S. Building Permits for April 20:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for May 21:45 U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Preliminary for May 21:45 U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Preliminary for May 22:00 Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index Preliminary for May Next Day 00:20 Speech by Federal Reserve's Bostic
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