A total of 4,636 enthusiastic votes were cast, with 36 one-hundred-yuan gift cards and 7 financial calendars fully distributed, marking the successful conclusion of Sina Finance's January community survey! This edition focused on four asset prices and three major international events, attracting deep participation from a large number of professional investors and seasoned traders. User bullish sentiment surged to its peak, collective price predictions for assets largely missed the mark, yet the judgment on international events demonstrated remarkable accuracy.
The predictions for the four major assets largely missed the mark, with bullish sentiment for precious metals running particularly high. In the precious metals sector, London gold (spot gold) once surged to a historic high of $5,596.33 per ounce, but then sharply reversed course, ultimately settling at $5,860.39 per ounce by month-end. After hitting a record high of $121.49 per ounce on January 29th, London silver (spot silver) closed down 26.83% on the 30th, settling at $84.43 per ounce. Market analysis suggests the pullback in gold and silver after their peaks can be attributed to investors taking profits. Following the record highs, early long positions cashed in their gains, compounded by expectations of a US dollar rebound spurred by the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the next Federal Reserve Chair, which contributed to the correction in gold prices.
Due to the persistently strong performance of precious metals in the preceding period, users' bullish sentiment was generally elevated. Nearly 80% of survey participants were convinced that gold prices would break through the $5,200 per ounce barrier, while only a minority of 8% maintained caution, betting on gold fluctuating within the $4,800-$5,000 range.
For silver, 70% of users believed it would close above $110, with a mere 7% offering a conservative forecast, predicting silver would finish at or below $90 per ounce.
Whether gold and silver can resume their upward trajectory will depend heavily on the US dollar's trend and the Federal Reserve's policy moves. Sina Finance's community survey will continue to track these developments, providing the latest interpretations for everyone.
Regarding the Nasdaq index, optimists bet on the continued explosion of emerging sectors like AI, while the more rational camp focused on the pressure that potential Fed policy tightening could exert on growth stock valuations. Nearly half (46%) of users expressed confidence in the Nasdaq, believing it could break through the 26,000-point milestone. 32% of users selected the neutral range of 25,000-26,000 points, acknowledging the long-term value of tech stocks while fully accounting for short-term market volatility, thereby accurately pinpointing the correct outcome.
In the crude oil market, over forty percent (43%) of users firmly believed oil prices would surpass the $70 per barrel mark, indicating a more aggressive assessment of the pace of global demand recovery. 37% of users paid closer attention to the apparent constraints on demand amid a slowing global economic recovery, betting on the $65-$70 per barrel range, demonstrating a precise grasp of crude oil supply-demand dynamics.
In contrast to the "derailment" of bullish sentiment in asset predictions, the majority of users demonstrated a firm handle on the three major international events. Regarding the tense situation in the Middle East, 55% of users rose above emotional interference, calmly judging that the US would not take military action before the end of January.
On the matter of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut magnitude, 50% of users demonstrated a deep understanding of the Fed's "hawkish pause" policy path, decisively selecting "no change."
The Supreme Court tariff policy presented the sole deviation: 64% of users guessed the Court would "oppose" Trump's tariff policy, but the actual result was "no ruling made," highlighting the extreme uncertainty inherent in such political events.
This round of voting featured the significant distribution of over thirty gift cards and multiple practical financial calendars! The community manager is already working diligently to compile the list of winners, and follow-up phone calls will be made to the lucky recipients to deliver the gifts.
Judging from the clash between the survey results and actual market movements, asset predictions are easily swayed by short-term market conditions. The high-flying行情 of precious metals readily fuels excessive bullish sentiment, causing potential correction risks to be overlooked. Conversely, international political events carry high uncertainty; accurate judgment requires not only insight into geopolitics and monetary policy but also careful consideration of judicial processes and political maneuvering.
Subsequently, the Sina Finance APP community will continue to launch high-quality survey activities focusing on global core assets and major policies. These initiatives will help decode market sentiment while offering the chance to win hundred-yuan JD.com gift cards. Stay tuned for our next survey to accurately gauge the market's pulse together and secure both benefits and returns.
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