Market risk appetite has improved. On March 10, as geopolitical risks eased in the short term, investor sentiment shifted from risk-off to risk-on. During the trading session, the cryptocurrency market rebounded sharply, with Bitcoin rising more than 5% within 24 hours at one point, breaking above $71,000. This volatility in the cryptocurrency market led to significant liquidations. Data from CoinGlass shows that over the past 24 hours, more than $300 million in global cryptocurrency futures contracts were liquidated, affecting 81,300 traders. Over 60% of these were short positions being liquidated. In the U.S. stock market, the three major indices opened mixed. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 each fell 0.05%. Storage-related stocks generally advanced, with Western Digital rising over 4%, and SanDisk and Micron Technology each gaining more than 3%. Regarding the latest developments in Iran, according to a CCTV report, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on March 10 that conditional negotiations with Iran were possible. Meanwhile, Iran launched the 34th wave of its "True Promise-4" offensive, using precision-guided missiles and ultra-heavy missiles with warheads weighing over one ton to strike U.S. and Israeli military bases. Cryptocurrencies rallied collectively. As tensions with Iran eased, the cryptocurrency market strengthened again. Bitcoin briefly surpassed $71,000, with a 24-hour gain exceeding 5% at its peak. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, rose nearly 4%, while XRP and Dogecoin saw gains of over 5%. Solana and Cardano each advanced more than 4%. As of 21:50 Beijing time on March 10, Bitcoin was trading at $70,200, up 1.87% in 24 hours. Among other cryptocurrencies, Hyperliquid rose nearly 6%, Dogecoin gained over 4%, and XRP, Cardano, Ethereum, and Solana rose nearly 2% or more than 1%, respectively. Earlier, Trump indicated that the Iran conflict would be resolved "soon," reversing the risk-off sentiment from Monday. Richard Galvin, co-founder of hedge fund DACM, noted, "The market interpreted Trump's latest remarks as suggesting the Iran conflict could end sooner than expected. However, the risk is that the market may have misread Trump's comments, or that Israel, the U.S., or Iran could take escalatory actions, eliminating the option for de-escalation." On Monday, Trump attempted to ease market concerns about energy prices during a press conference at the Doral Resort in Florida. He stated the administration was "seeking to keep oil prices low" and hinted at possible exemptions for some oil sanctions, with the U.S. Navy escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Europe's Stoxx 600 index recorded its largest single-day gain since April, while U.S. stock index futures also rose. Brent crude prices fell sharply by over 7% to around $91 per barrel, well below Monday's peak of $119.50. Since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on February 28, Bitcoin has demonstrated relative stability as an asset. Pratik Kala, Head of Research at Apollo Crypto, analyzed, "Buying interest for Bitcoin has remained strong after the outbreak of war, with the $68,000 level forming solid support. A decisive break above $73,000 could see the next strong resistance near $87,000." So far this month, Bitcoin has even outperformed the traditional safe-haven asset gold. Although Bitcoin initially fell after the airstrikes on Iran, it has still gained approximately 7% for the month, while gold has fallen 2% over the same period. Notably, Bitcoin's volatility has increased significantly this week, with the 30-day implied volatility index hitting a two-week high. Since the sharp correction last October, this lack of sustained upward momentum has become commonplace. Bitcoin's price remains more than 40% below its all-time high of $126,000. Data from the options market shows traders continue to position for downside protection, with open interest in Bitcoin put options on the Deribit exchange concentrated around the $60,000 strike price. When will the conflict end? According to a CCTV report, on March 10, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that conditional negotiations with Iran were possible. When asked if he was willing to talk with Iranian leaders, Trump said, "I hear they very much want to negotiate." "It's possible, depending on the conditions, but it's only a possibility." Trump reiterated his dissatisfaction with Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, stating, "I don't believe he can live peacefully." Furthermore, citing The Wall Street Journal report from March 9, several advisors have recently privately urged President Trump to find a way to extricate the U.S. from the conflict with Iran quickly, fearing political backlash from soaring oil prices and a prolonged conflict. The report stated that according to informed sources, several advisors have pressed Trump to present a concrete exit strategy and demonstrate that the objectives of the U.S. military strikes against Iran have been largely achieved. Soaring oil prices above $100 per barrel have alarmed these advisors, with some Republicans becoming concerned about the congressional midterm elections scheduled for November. Economic advisor Stephen Moore said, "When gasoline and oil prices rise, everything else rises too. This poses a real challenge when affordability is already an issue." Informed sources said Trump's team recently concluded that, given the pressure many citizens face from rising oil prices, they need a more aggressive communication plan to persuade the public to support the war. Several recently published opinion polls indicate that a majority of Americans oppose the war. Informed sources noted that while many within Trump's conservative base still support the initial military action, some advisors worry that a protracted conflict could erode that support. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump's statements on the Iran conflict have been inconsistent. Last week he said he sought Iran's "unconditional surrender" and did not rule out sending ground troops into Iran. On March 9, he told the New York Post that issuing such orders was "nowhere near" happening. At a press conference on March 9, Trump said U.S. military action against Iran would end "soon," but added that the U.S. "could go further, and will go further." Iran's Parliament Speaker speaks out. Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on March 10 that Iran "absolutely does not seek a ceasefire" and must respond resolutely to the "aggressors." Ghalibaf stated on social media that day that Israel is trying to maintain a cycle of "war-negotiations-ceasefire-war again," and that "Iran will definitely break this cycle." Additionally, according to Iranian media reports on March 10, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said that Iran's current priority is only "decisive defense," and that "the cessation of war is in Iran's hands." The Iranian Tasnim News Agency quoted Araqchi as saying that some countries, including Middle Eastern nations, are currently engaging with Iran hoping to broker a ceasefire and end the fighting. He emphasized, "If a ceasefire or pause in conflict is reached now, and Iran is attacked again six months later, then the ceasefire would be meaningless." Araqchi also stated, "Currently, Iran has no priority other than decisively taking defensive measures to protect the country." On the same day, according to multiple Iranian media reports, the Iranian military issued Announcement No. 20 on March 10, stating that the Iranian Air Force used drones to strike a refinery, fuel depot, and other facilities in the northern Israeli city of Haifa. The Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement on March 10, in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said actions against Iran were "not over yet." The statement also said that Israel's strikes on Iran had severely degraded the Iranian government's capabilities. Israel hopes the Iranian people will "overthrow their leadership." In the afternoon of March 10 local time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement declaring that the 34th round of the "True Promise-4" operation had been formally carried out. During this operation, Iranian forces used precision-guided missiles with warheads exceeding one ton to strike U.S. and Israeli military bases and related support facilities.
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