On April 29, international gold prices exhibited significantly amplified volatility on the eve of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. ZFX山海证券 noted that spot gold prices retreated to around $4,600 per ounce, testing key support levels near a three-week low. Market expectations widely anticipate no change in policy following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held from April 28 to 29. However, traders remain highly sensitive to the tone of Chairman Powell's press conference, with short-term gold price movements hinging on subtle shifts in policy path expectations.
From a market perspective, this round of the policy meeting is not a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meeting. ZFX山海证券 believes that since there will be no updates to the dot plot or economic forecasts, all policy signals will be conveyed through the meeting statement and the press conference. Consequently, the market may amplify its interpretation of any marginal changes in tone. The simultaneous release of high-frequency indicators, such as first-quarter GDP data and initial jobless claims, will also impact the trajectory of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, thereby indirectly causing fluctuations in gold valuation.
From a medium- to long-term viewpoint, geopolitical risks and persistent inflation remain key variables supporting gold prices. Disruptions to energy supplies in the Middle East continue to elevate imported inflation pressures, limiting central banks' policy options for combating inflation and sustaining stable safe-haven buying interest. Several international investment banks have raised their year-end gold price targets, indicating that the core bullish outlook for gold over the medium to long term remains fundamentally intact.
Looking ahead, the medium- to long-term upward trend for gold prices has not been substantially broken. ZFX山海证券 anticipates that if the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, gold is likely to find effective support within the range of $4,550 to $4,650. Subsequently, catalyzed by risk events, it could once again challenge the $5,000 threshold. Investors are advised to manage single-position risks, maintain patience for medium- to long-term holdings, and capitalize on periodic opportunities arising from policy variables.
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