U.S. stock indices closed higher on Monday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both advancing more than 1%, fully recovering losses incurred since the outbreak of recent geopolitical tensions. Reports indicate that diplomatic engagements between the U.S. and Iran continue, with "progress being made toward reaching an agreement."
At market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 301.68 points, or 0.63%, to 48,218.25. The Nasdaq Composite gained 280.84 points, or 1.23%, closing at 23,183.74, while the S&P 500 increased by 69.35 points, or 1.02%, to 6,886.24.
Oracle (ORCL) surged 12.69%, and SanDisk Corp. (SNDK) climbed 11.8%, reaching a new record high and bringing its year-to-date gain to over 300%. Intel (INTC) rose more than 4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index ended 0.7% higher, with Baidu (BIDU) advancing over 3%.
In European markets, Germany's DAX 30 fell 124.97 points, or 0.52%, to 23,730.22. The UK's FTSE 100 declined 21.66 points, or 0.20%, to 10,578.87, and France's CAC 40 dropped 23.62 points, or 0.29%, to 8,235.98. The Euro Stoxx 50 decreased 20.11 points, or 0.34%, to 5,906.00. Spain's IBEX 35 fell 180.14 points, or 0.99%, to 18,024.16, while Italy's FTSE MIB lost 64.86 points, or 0.14%, to 47,544.50.
Asian equities also saw declines: Japan's Nikkei 225 dropped 0.74%, and South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.86%.
In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin rose over 3% to $73,248.33, and Ethereum increased more than 2.6% to $2,257.10.
Oil prices advanced due to potential supply constraints from U.S. actions against Iranian ports, though signs of ongoing ceasefire talks limited gains. WTI crude for May delivery rose 2.6%, settling at $99.08 per barrel, while June Brent crude increased 4.4%, settling at $99.36 per barrel.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.28% to 98.370. By the end of New York trading, one euro traded at $1.1728, up from $1.1725 the previous session. The British pound rose to $1.3477 from $1.3463. The U.S. dollar bought 159.50 Japanese yen, up from 159.28, while it fell to 0.7859 Swiss francs from 0.7893 and declined to 1.3800 Canadian dollars from 1.3830. Against the Swedish krona, the dollar decreased to 9.2013 from 9.2781.
In precious metals, spot gold edged down 0.17% to $4,741.14 per ounce, while silver inched higher to $75.62.
Media reports cited a U.S. official stating that diplomatic contacts with Iran continue and "progress is being made toward an agreement." Sources familiar with the matter indicated that U.S. officials are discussing details for a second face-to-face meeting before the expiration of the current temporary ceasefire. The meeting's feasibility depends on progress in coming days, with potential dates and locations under review. A regional source noted that Geneva and Islamabad are again under consideration for talks. Depending on developments, the ceasefire may be extended by two weeks to allow more time for negotiations. Separate social media reports suggested the next round of direct talks could take place in Islamabad on the 16th.
BlackRock has reinstated an overweight stance on U.S. equities, citing expectations that the economic impact of Middle East conflict will remain contained. After recently adopting a neutral position due to escalating tensions, strategists led by Jean Boivin noted that signals such as resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and limited economic fallout support increased risk exposure. They emphasized that recent ceasefire developments are critical and that the threshold for renewed conflict remains high. BlackRock also highlighted the upcoming earnings season, noting that corporate profit expectations have risen even during the conflict, partly due to artificial intelligence themes. The firm maintained that strong earnings expectations, particularly in technology, support a risk-on outlook.
Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee stated that robust consumer spending remains key to U.S. economic strength. He noted that current oil futures pricing suggests market expectations of a temporary spike in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions. As long as consumer strength persists, economic growth should remain solid, though prolonged high gasoline prices would require reassessment of consumer spending impacts.
The White House reported a shortage of at least 10 million single-family homes in the U.S., exceeding previous government and private sector estimates. According to the Council of Economic Advisers' annual report, if construction had maintained its historical pace post-2008, there would be over 10 million more such homes. Freddie Mac estimated a 3.7 million unit shortage based on demographic demand, while the National Association of Realtors pegged the gap at 5.5 million units in mid-2021. The issue of housing affordability is expected to be a key topic in upcoming elections.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued guidance clarifying that certain user interfaces for crypto asset securities transactions may be exempt from broker-dealer registration if they meet specific conditions. These include not soliciting trades, providing investment advice, or controlling transactions, while disclosing fees, conflicts, and risks. The exemption applies to interfaces like websites or wallet apps that convert user parameters into executable instructions but does not cover activities like trade matching or custody. The guidance is interim and will expire in April 2031 unless further action is taken.
The New York Fed reported that the Federal Reserve's unrealized losses on its bond holdings narrowed to less than $850 billion in 2025, down from $1.06 trillion in 2024. These accounting losses, disclosed in the System Open Market Account annual report, are not seen as impacting Fed operations since the central bank does not plan to sell the securities. Some observers, however, view the losses as reflective of challenges in using the balance sheet for market stabilization.
NVIDIA (NVDA) denied reports that it is in talks to acquire a major PC manufacturer. Earlier speculation had pointed to Dell or HP as potential targets, causing their shares to rise. A NVIDIA spokesperson stated that no such acquisition negotiations are taking place.
In analyst actions, Wedbush raised its price target for Netflix (NFLX) from $115 to $118.
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