On Tuesday, January 20th, during the early Asian trading session, spot gold was fluctuating at high levels, trading around $4670 per ounce. A "Greenland dispute" triggered by US President Trump rapidly escalated into a catalyst for international trade friction; this event not only caused a severe tremor in US-Europe relations but also directly ignited a surge in safe-haven assets, driving both gold and silver to hit new historical highs. After spot gold opened higher on Monday, reaching a new historical peak of $4690 before experiencing a slight pullback, and in the absence of further news-driven stimulus, the metal has since turned "moderate," oscillating within a narrow range of $4660-$4680 for almost the entire day.
On the fundamental front, the United Nations Development Programme announced on January 19th local time that it will reorganize some positions at its New York headquarters, with nearly 400 roles gradually relocating to Europe. This adjustment is part of an institutional reform aimed at adapting to the current changes in the global fiscal and development environment, strengthening ties with host countries and partners, and enhancing support capabilities for the world's most vulnerable populations. Approximately three-quarters of these positions will move to Bonn, Germany, with the remainder relocating to Madrid, Spain.
The most significant test of the Federal Reserve's independence in over a century will occur this Wednesday, January 21st, at the US Supreme Court. The焦点 lies on whether the justices will adhere to Congressional intent by protecting the Fed from political influence, or whether they will allow President Donald Trump to conduct a personnel purge at will, specifically regarding his attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. It is reported that Chair Powell will attend the Supreme Court hearing on the Cook case this Wednesday. This hearing and its ultimate ruling transcend a mere personnel or legal dispute; it represents a critical test for the cornerstone of the US dollar's value.
Regarding geopolitics, the平息 of domestic unrest in Iran has reduced the risk of US military action against this major oil producer and a subsequent disruption to its supply. Meanwhile, on the 19th local time, IDF Chief of Staff Zamir stated during an inspection of the Home Front Command that the military has fully absorbed the lessons from the "12-Day War" with Iran in June 2025. He declared the army is fully prepared to counter "multi-front threats" and is on high alert, possessing the capability to protect civilian lives in the event of large-scale attacks against Israel.
From a technical perspective, looking at the daily gold chart, gold had breached below the 5-day moving average at $4635 last Friday, initially showing signs of a corrective pullback. However, unexpected news over the weekend ignited safe-haven buying sentiment, pushing the price back above the 5-day average. The subsequent lack of sustained upward momentum is primarily due to two factors: first, current market prices are excessively high, creating substantial pent-up adjustment pressure that makes it difficult for bulls to commit with absolute confidence; second, the short-term market is overly reliant on fundamental news, rallying briefly on positive developments before settling into calm, indicating that the current trend is not conventional but driven purely by sentiment.
Analyzing the 1-hour gold chart, the current state of gold maintaining high levels while forming a narrow consolidation range suggests a seemingly calm market with underlying turbulent currents. Resistance above is focused on the $4690-$4700 pressure zone, while support below hinges critically on the battle for the 5-day moving average at $4635. Technically, a pullback is still more anticipated, but for a genuine reversal to occur, either bearish fundamental stimuli are needed, or a period of平淡 news is required to allow time cycles to ease the pressure.
Today's trading recommendation: For intraday trading, consider shorting gold near $4680, with a stop-loss at $4690, targeting $4660-$4650! Conservative traders are advised to maintain a wait-and-see attitude and avoid blindly participating in this sentiment-driven market.
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