According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed the 140 trillion yuan mark for the first time in 2025, registering a year-on-year growth of 5.0% calculated at constant prices. By sector, the value-added of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries grew by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4%, respectively.
An in-depth analysis of these key figures reveals that, against a backdrop of external uncertainties and internal structural adjustments, China's economy has not only maintained stable growth but also demonstrated characteristics of an improved structure, enhanced resilience, and continuously strengthening internal drivers. This state is not reliant on short-term stimulus but is a concentrated reflection of China's advantages in economic scale, industrial prowess, and market institutional mechanisms, signifying profound changes in the inherent logic of economic development.
First, the economic performance in 2025 reflects the policy logic of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and using stability to promote quality" under the new normal. Macro policies continued an approach that emphasizes the combination of cross-cycle and counter-cyclical adjustments, maintaining policy continuity and predictability while placing greater emphasis on structural regulation and targeted support. For instance, in terms of monetary policy, the broad money supply (M2) grew 8.5% year-on-year by the end of 2025, and the stock of aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) grew 8.3% year-on-year, keeping financial support for the real economy within a reasonable range. This growth rate is significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate while avoiding the risk of asset bubbles from excessive easing, demonstrating a balance between "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks" in monetary policy. Concurrently, the use of structural tools such as targeted relending and consumer loan interest subsidies guided funds precisely towards areas like domestic demand and high technology, accelerating economic transformation and structural adjustment.
Based on the policy orientation and budget execution, it is evident that fiscal policy has focused more on optimizing the expenditure structure and improving the efficiency of fund utilization, rather than simply expanding the total volume. For example, central government fiscal support for science and technology increased by 10% in 2025, with greater expenditure efforts also directed towards key areas such as social security and employment, science and technology, education, and health. This policy orientation itself is a key manifestation of the new normal: by implementing stable and restrained macro policies, it provides clear expectations for market entities and creates a relatively宽松 and sustainable institutional environment for industrial restructuring and innovation, thereby promoting a shift in economic drivers from exogenous stimulus to endogenous growth.
Second, the pace of industrial structure optimization and upgrading, as well as the momentum of endogenous growth, have accelerated rapidly. Published data shows that the growth rate of value-added in the tertiary industry reached 5.4%, significantly higher than that of the primary and secondary industries, further highlighting the "ballast" role of the service sector in stabilizing growth. The rising proportion of services reflects not just a change in structural ratios but a profound transformation in the mode of economic growth—the growth drivers are shifting from being primarily reliant on investment and industrial expansion to being led by services, consumption, and technology-intensive activities.
At the industry level, modern service sectors such as information transmission, software and information technology services, and leasing and business services maintained relatively rapid growth, becoming important areas for job absorption and value creation. This change effectively reflects the shift in the endogenous drivers of China's economic development: on one hand, rising household income levels and upgrading consumption structures continuously expand demand for high-quality, diversified services; on the other hand, the development of digital technology, the platform economy, and modern logistics systems has significantly lowered the institutional and technical barriers to service sector expansion, endowing it with stronger potential for scale and sustainable growth. Consequently, industrial restructuring and consumption upgrading form a virtuous cycle, providing the economy with more stable, diversified, and resilient sources of growth.
Third, new quality productive forces are accelerating to become the main driver of economic development. The value-added of the secondary industry grew 4.5% year-on-year in 2025, within which high-tech manufacturing and manufacturing enterprises above a designated size grew by 9.4% and 9.2%, respectively. This indicates that a structural differentiation is occurring within the industrial system, where growth in traditional high-energy-consumption, low-value-added sectors is slowing, while technology-intensive and capital-intensive industries are gradually becoming key pillars of industrial growth.
From a developmental logic perspective, new quality productive forces do not rely solely on government impetus but are built upon a foundation of technological progress, market competition, and industrial system integrity. On one hand, technological advancement increases the value-added and production efficiency per unit of output; on the other hand, the domestic ultra-large-scale market provides space for the continuous iteration and scaled application of new technologies and products. This mechanism of mutual reinforcement among "technology-market-industrial system" transforms new quality productive forces from a conceptual level into tangible productive forces, becoming a crucial source of economic resilience under the new normal.
At the level of demand structure, changes in both domestic demand and the foreign trade structure jointly supported the stability of economic performance in 2025. In terms of domestic demand, total retail sales of consumer goods maintained moderate growth throughout the year, exceeding 50 trillion yuan for the first time with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The change in consumption structure is particularly noteworthy: the proportion of service consumption continues to rise, with strong demand growth in areas like cultural tourism, health services, and digital consumption, making them important forces for stabilizing domestic demand. Under the new normal, consumption will undoubtedly play a greater role as a "stabilizer" and "regulator." However, it is also essential to recognize that consumption growth is more closely related to household expectations and income structure; the key to expanding consumption lies not in short-term stimulus but in improving the social security system, stabilizing employment expectations, and enhancing income distribution.
Regarding foreign trade, despite a complex global trade environment, China's export structure continued to optimize, providing important support for the economy. The proportion of mechanical and electrical products and high-value-added products in exports kept increasing, and the status of emerging markets and Belt and Road partner countries in the export landscape rose. This change indicates that the way foreign trade supports the economy is shifting from "scale expansion" to "structural optimization." By enhancing technological content and market diversification, it strengthens the reverse promoting effect of external demand on domestic industrial upgrading, thereby improving the overall economy's ability to withstand shocks. The resonance between domestic demand upgrading and foreign trade optimization accelerates the enhancement of China's economic endogenous drivers. Therefore, the development model of China's economy under the new normal is not merely a simple overlay of internal consumption drive and external trade optimization, but a comprehensive development pattern characterized by strengthened endogenous drivers, structural optimization, and controllable risks.
It cannot be ignored that economic operations in 2025 still faced significant internal and external pressures. On one hand, the potential for growth in social domestic demand needs to be further unleashed. Public willingness to consume is closely linked to employment stability, income expectations, and the level of social security. As the pension, healthcare, and unemployment security systems are relatively underdeveloped, households tend to increase their savings rate, constraining the release of consumption potential. On the other hand, uncertainties such as divergent global economic growth and rising geopolitical risks persist. This requires that, while promoting export upgrading, greater attention must be paid to industrial chain security and risk diversification to ensure that foreign trade growth and domestic industrial upgrading advance synergistically.
Looking ahead to 2026, China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth. Macro policies will focus more on structural optimization rather than merely driving growth rates. Fiscal policy will further tilt towards technological innovation, public services, and local debt optimization, while monetary policy will use structural tools to guide funds towards the real economy and innovative sectors. Industrial competition logic will increasingly emphasize systemic capabilities, with corporate advantages manifesting more in technological accumulation, supply chain robustness, and global service capabilities, rather than单纯的 capacity or price competition. It is foreseeable that more Chinese enterprises will rapidly grow into international companies with global influence. The interplay between policy, industry, and the market will further consolidate the strong foundation of China's economic growth momentum, providing institutional and structural guarantees for maintaining long-term economic resilience.
In summary, China's economic operations have established a new developmental logic—macro policies are becoming more stable and targeted, the industrial structure is evolving towards servitization and high-end advancement, domestic demand and innovation are becoming the primary growth drivers, and an optimized foreign trade structure enhances economic resilience. The long-term interaction between policy, industry, and the market will provide China's economy with the institutional and structural guarantees for sustained development, offering solid logical support and a practical pathway for achieving long-term, high-quality development.
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