Cinda Securities: E-Commerce Express Leaders Gain Market Share; Recommends S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. (002352.SZ) in Direct-Operation Segment

Stock News11:40

Cinda Securities released a research report highlighting its recommendations in the express delivery sector. For the direct-operation model, it favors S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. (002352.SZ), citing optimism over the company's operational and cash flow inflection points, which are expected to usher in a new growth phase. Under the franchise model, amid the industry's "anti-involution" push, listed companies have seen significant sequential improvements in per-parcel pricing, coupled with peak-season volume growth, leading to potential earnings recovery. Since 2025, market differentiation has accelerated, with leading firms gaining share. The report recommends ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057) and YTO Express (600233.SH).

**Key Insights:** 1. **Volume Trends:** - November express delivery volume grew 5.0% YoY. S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. saw a sequential slowdown due to business optimization, while STO Express's acquisition of Daniao boosted scale. - E-commerce retail sales for Jan-Nov totaled RMB 11.82 trillion (+5.7% YoY), outpacing overall retail growth by 1.7 percentage points. Online penetration dipped slightly to 25.9%, while average parcel value fell 12.9% to RMB 65.4. - Jan-Nov express volume hit 180.74 billion parcels (+14.9% YoY), with November at 18.06 billion (+5.0%).

2. **Company Performance:** - November volumes: YTO (2.886B), STO (2.502B), Yunda (2.175B), S.F.Holding (1.534B). Growth rates: S.F.Holding (20.13%) > STO (14.67%) > YTO (13.55%) > Yunda (-4.19%). S.F.Holding’s average price rose RMB 0.29 sequentially, shifting focus from scale to value, aiding margin recovery. - Jan-Nov cumulative volumes: YTO (28.26B), STO (23.637B), Yunda (23.453B), S.F.Holding (15.158B). Growth: S.F.Holding (27.25%) > YTO (18.10%) > STO (15.43%) > Yunda (9.27%). - Market shares: YTO (15.6%), STO (13.1%), Yunda (13.0%), S.F.Holding (8.4%). YoY changes: S.F.Holding (+0.8ppt), YTO (+0.4ppt), STO (+0.1ppt), Yunda (-0.7ppt).

3. **Pricing Trends:** - Industry-wide November average price rose 1.9% MoM to RMB 7.62 (-8.3% YoY). Cumulative Jan-Nov price was RMB 7.50 (-6.8% YoY). "Anti-involution" measures since August lifted prices by RMB 0.27 vs. July. - Company-level: S.F.Holding’s price rose RMB 0.29 MoM; STO gained RMB 0.23 post-Daniao merger. November prices: S.F.Holding (RMB 13.47), YTO (RMB 2.24), STO (RMB 2.41), Yunda (RMB 2.16).

**Outlook & Risks:** - E-commerce express volumes remain resilient, supported by livestreaming-driven growth and fragmented consumption. The "anti-involution" campaign has stabilized pricing, with further industry differentiation expected. - Risks: Weak e-commerce demand, intensified price competition, and franchisee instability.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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