The latest data from the "Liquor Price Insider" indicates that the average terminal retail prices of major Chinese baijiu products continued a slight recovery overall on May 15th. If one bottle of each major product were packaged and sold together, the total price today would be 9,964 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from the previous day, marking the second consecutive day of reaching the highest level in nearly half a month. The market maintained a gentle upward trend with generally stable trading sentiment, though price movements among core products remained significantly divergent.
Among the 11 major products tracked, six saw price increases, four decreased, and one remained unchanged, indicating a slight advantage for gainers. On the upside, Kweichow Moutai's "Fine" label and Xijiu's "Junpin" led the gains, both rising by 4 yuan per bottle. The former reached its highest price in nearly a month, while the latter rebounded slightly but remains at the second-lowest level for the month. Qinghualang increased by 3 yuan per bottle. Guojiao 1573, Yanghe's Dream Blue M6+, and Wuliangye 1618 each rose by 1 yuan per bottle. Specifically, Guojiao 1573 achieved its seventh consecutive day of gains, setting a new one-month high. Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ recorded its fourth consecutive increase, matching its recent peak. Wuliangye 1618 has shown stable performance over the past ten days.
On the downside, Gujinggong's Gu 20 experienced the largest decline, dropping 6 yuan per bottle. Feitian Moutai decreased by 3 yuan per bottle. Both Qinghua Fen 20 and Crystal Jiannanchun fell by 1 yuan per bottle, with the former continuing to decline after recently hitting a monthly low. The price of Wuliangye's standard Pu Wu 8th Generation remained unchanged from the previous period.
The "Liquor Price Insider" data is sourced daily from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide. These points include, but are not limited to, designated distributors, independent distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw data consists of actual terminal retail transaction prices processed at these points over the past 24 hours, aiming to provide objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu brands.
Following the official launch of sales for Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle (adjusted to 1,539 yuan per bottle on March 31) and "Fine" Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9 via the i-Moutai platform, the gravitational influence of this new sales channel on the terminal retail prices of these two products has gradually become apparent. The daily prices published by the "Liquor Price Insider" are calculated based on rules that weight actual transaction volumes. Prices from this verifiable channel have been incorporated into the calculation of the terminal retail prices for these two products.
In related industry news, a research report on the food and beverage sector suggested that a turning point for the baijiu industry is gradually emerging. The report noted that in the first quarter of 2026, baijiu companies generally reduced collection requirements, continuing to alleviate channel pressure. Quarterly collections fell by 18.6% year-on-year, a growth rate significantly lower than that of revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders. The core reason is attributed to companies taking pragmatic steps to ease pressure by relaxing collection requirements for distributors. Combining the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, listed baijiu companies achieved revenue of 204.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 71.02 billion yuan, down 19.3% year-on-year. Sales collections totaled 210.91 billion yuan, a decline of 23.3%. As demand appears to be bottoming out, companies are proactively reducing burdens in anticipation of an upward cyclical turning point.
Regarding investment advice, the view is that the baijiu sector is at a cyclical bottom and can be considered as offering returns superior to government bonds plus an embedded call option. At the individual stock level, the primary recommendations are large-scale companies with strong operational certainty and leading brand value: Kweichow Moutai Co.,Ltd. (top pick), Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu. Secondary recommendations include regional leaders with sufficiently low expectations and stable fundamentals, such as Gujinggong, while also noting Yanghe's organizational reforms and low expectations, and keeping an eye on Yingjiagong and Jinshiyuan.
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