On November 28, 2025, domestic futures contracts mostly saw gains, with European container shipping rates surging nearly 7%. Dorian LPG (LPG) and Shanghai silver rose over 3%, while propylene climbed more than 2%. SC crude oil, palm oil, polypropylene (PP), and fuel oil also gained nearly 2%. On the downside, palladium dropped over 2%, coking coal fell nearly 2%, and red dates declined more than 1%.
A research report from SDIC Futures on November 28 indicated that CMA CGM has arranged for some voyages on the FAL1 and FAL3 routes to pass through the Red Sea. Despite ongoing volatility in the Gaza situation and challenges in fully resuming operations before the Lunar New Year, expectations for shipping resumption are gradually heating up, continuing to pressure far-month contracts. Near-month contracts remain under pressure due to weak spot market conditions. Following Maersk's adjustment of its second-week opening price to $2,200/FEU, multiple carriers followed suit with price cuts. ONE of the PA alliance also lowered its rate to $2,200/FEU, while YML reduced its first-week FE3 and FE4 voyage quotes to $1,900/FEU to attract cargo. Currently, December freight rates are weak, and further price reductions are expected. The December contract is already trading at a discount to spot prices, and the December-February spread shows a backwardation structure, reflecting market pessimism that December rates may not even match late November levels—effectively negating traditional peak season performance. However, seasonal patterns still hold for the year overall. The February contract, which corresponds to a spot price below $2,000/FEU, reflects pre-Lunar New Year freight levels due to its early delivery date. If cargo volumes recover seasonally, the February contract still has room for adjustment. Against the backdrop of weak spot market conditions, opportunities for near-month contract reversal strategies ahead of the Lunar New Year may be worth monitoring.
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