On July 7th, data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange showed that as of the end of June 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.4163 trillion, a decrease of $26 billion from the end of May, representing a decline of 0.75%.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange indicated that in June 2026, influenced by factors such as macroeconomic data from major economies, monetary policies and expectations of major central banks, the US dollar index rose, while the prices of major global financial assets showed mixed performance. The combined effect of factors including currency translation and asset price changes led to the decrease in foreign exchange reserves that month. The overall stability and progressive, high-quality development of China's economy are conducive to maintaining a generally stable level of foreign exchange reserves.
Data from the People's Bank of China shows that China's gold reserves at the end of June were reported at 75.44 million ounces (approximately 2,346.446 tonnes), an increase of 480,000 ounces (approximately 14.93 tonnes) from the previous month. Gold reserves at the end of May were 74.96 million ounces (approximately 2,331.52 tonnes), marking the 20th consecutive month of gold accumulation.
JPMorgan has revised down its average gold price forecast for the third quarter to $4,300 per ounce and to $4,500 per ounce for the fourth quarter, representing a significant reduction of 20% to 25% from its previous expectations. This suggests that the previous phase of indiscriminate bullishness driven by safe-haven demand and aggressive central bank purchases has concluded.
Although the gold price has seen a technical rebound from around the $4,000 per ounce level, the bank explicitly stated that near-term risks remain skewed to the downside. Should summer economic data come in hotter than expected, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates earlier, the gold price could fall below $4,000, potentially triggering technical selling and probing the $3,500 to $3,600 range.
Concurrently, JPMorgan maintains its long-term bullish stance on gold, anticipating that in 2027, with the structural return of central bank purchases and physical demand, the gold price will resume its upward trajectory, with the annual average price expected to rise to $4,775 per ounce.
At the time of writing, spot gold was down 0.68% to $4,136.58.
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