Title
Earning Preview: apache this quarter’s revenue is expected to decrease by 17.44%, and institutional views are bearishAbstract
APA Corporation will report quarterly results on February 25, 2026, Post Market, with the Street watching for a revenue decline toward about $1.85 billion and EPS near $0.64 amid a cautious analyst stance and tightening commodity-price sensitivities.Market Forecast
For the current quarter, the prevailing projections point to APA Corporation’s revenue near $1.85 billion, a year-over-year decline of 17.44%, with adjusted EPS around $0.64, implying a year-over-year contraction of 33.70%; EBIT is estimated at $517.78 million, down 37.47% year over year. The company’s main business remains crude oil, which accounted for $1.47 billion last quarter and is expected to see near-term performance shaped by realized pricing and volume cadence; per the latest segment breakdown, natural gas contributed $192.00 million, and liquefied natural gas contributed $142.00 million, with year-over-year segment changes not disclosed.Last Quarter Review
APA Corporation delivered revenue of $2.12 billion last quarter, up 2.77% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 68.32%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $205.00 million, a net profit margin of 9.69%, and adjusted EPS of $0.93, down 7.00% year over year. One notable highlight was revenue exceeding the prior consensus by $52.96 million, reinforcing execution resilience despite commodity variability. In the revenue mix, crude oil contributed $1.47 billion, while oil and gas sales reached $311.00 million; natural gas and liquefied natural gas generated $192.00 million and $142.00 million respectively, though year-over-year segment comparisons were not disclosed in the breakdown.Current Quarter Outlook
Main Business: Crude Oil
Crude oil remains the anchor of APA Corporation’s revenue base, and this quarter’s outcome will hinge on realized prices versus benchmark references and the company’s mix of Brent- versus WTI-linked volumes. The prior quarter shows that the gross margin stayed high at 68.32%, reflecting a favorable cost structure and marketing strategy; however, with the current quarter’s total revenue and EPS both tracking lower year over year, the realized pricing trajectory is central to understanding margin continuity. The forecasted decline to $1.85 billion implies pressure from either softer price realizations or timing effects across key producing areas, and the EBIT estimate of $517.78 million suggests a more pronounced profitability headwind than top-line alone. Investors will parse volume cadence and any commentary on liftings and maintenance to reconcile the margin outlook with realized price paths; if APA Corporation confirms disciplined operating costs and production stability, it may limit downside to margins even as EPS absorbs price-related softness.Most Promising Business: Natural Gas and LNG
Natural gas and liquefied natural gas generated $192.00 million and $142.00 million respectively last quarter, and the segment’s appeal this quarter is anchored in monetization stability and diversification benefits within the broader hydrocarbon mix. Recent analyst commentary has emphasized the role of Egyptian natural gas stability as an offset to weaker performance in certain legacy oil areas, which supports the outlook for steadier cash flows within the gas bucket. While last quarter’s segment revenue provides a base, the current quarter’s consolidated revenue forecast implies year-over-year contraction, so the degree to which gas uplift or consistency can cushion the decline is an important consideration; any update on realized gas prices, contract terms, and operational uptime will be closely watched. With long-dated offshore opportunities still in the background, this quarter’s valuation sensitivity is likely more tied to tangible gas delivery metrics and price realizations rather than speculative upside; if APA Corporation demonstrates reliable gas volumes and cost control, this segment could mitigate the drag on consolidated EBIT.Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The primary near-term driver is earnings quality relative to headline beats or misses: investors will scrutinize the mix of price versus volume effects in the $1.85 billion revenue estimate and assess whether the EPS path around $0.64 is conservative or signals further margin compression risk. Guidance and capital allocation are equally important, as the Street will look for clarity on 2026 capital intensity, operational priorities by basin, and any pacing comments on longer-cycle developments, which can recalibrate valuation expectations. Analyst posture entering the print is cautious to bearish, and management’s commentary on Permian volumes, stability in Egypt, and timetable for longer-dated offshore opportunities could influence both near-term sentiment and the trajectory of price targets; stronger-than-feared volume performance or evidence of cost resilience would be value-accretive even without a top-line beat. Commodity price sensitivity naturally influences result dispersion, but APA Corporation’s last-quarter 68.32% gross margin provides some buffer; investors will want reassurance that margin resiliency is sustainable amid the forecasted year-over-year declines in total revenue and EBIT. Finally, incremental detail on marketing arrangements, transportation costs, and any temporary operational constraints could shape expectations, as these elements often drive surprise effects that go beyond headline commodity moves.Analyst Opinions
Bearish views dominate directional calls among recent institution updates collected within the January 1, 2026 to February 18, 2026 window, with no clear bullish initiations; based on the sample, bearish opinions outweigh bullish by a ratio of 100% to 0%. Goldman Sachs maintained a Sell rating and adjusted its price target to $23 on January 22, 2026, underscoring skepticism over near-term upside as consolidated forecasts point to year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS this quarter. Barclays downgraded APA Corporation to Underweight on January 21, 2026, signaling concerns that current performance drivers—particularly weaker momentum in some oil-producing areas—may not be offset quickly enough by stabilizers elsewhere in the portfolio. These bearish calls align with the earnings model’s contraction signals for the quarter: revenue estimated at $1.85 billion (-17.44% year over year), EPS near $0.64 (-33.70%), and EBIT expected around $517.78 million (-37.47%), all of which frame a challenging comparison set and justify more conservative positioning pending clearer evidence of a bottoming trend.The bearish stance also finds partial reinforcement in neutral updates that emphasize balance rather than positive inflection. Jefferies maintained a Hold rating with a $22 target on January 21, 2026, and Bernstein reiterated Market Perform with a modestly adjusted target on January 5, 2026, reflecting a wait-and-see approach. RBC lifted its target to $26 while maintaining Sector Perform on January 26, 2026, which still situates APA Corporation in a neutral zone; meanwhile, Stephens adjusted its target to $24 and kept Equalweight on February 17, 2026. Although neutral ratings are not directional calls, their cautious tone and modest price targets contribute to an overall picture that lacks conviction toward a near-term bullish turn and helps explain why bearish opinions form the majority of directional calls at this point.
From a valuation and expectations perspective, the bearish majority emphasizes three dislocations that could persist into the report. First, earnings cadence: the implied step-down in EPS and EBIT suggests that even with operational discipline, APA Corporation may need either a price lift or a mix shift to restore prior-period profitability levels; absent that, the path back to higher EPS could be gradual. Second, operating momentum: while last quarter’s gross margin of 68.32% signaled effective cost control, a heavier weighting to price-sensitive barrels can amplify downside when benchmarks soften; analysts caution that a strong margin print is not by itself sufficient to offset top-line deterioration if realized prices or volumes underperform. Third, the timing of growth catalysts: neutral houses often note stability in gas and longer-dated offshore opportunities, but the bearish view argues these are unlikely to change the quarterly narrative in a way that materially surprises to the upside; the market may require firmer visibility on the pace and scale of new developments before pricing in a re-rating.
In practical terms, bearish-leaning analysts will gauge management’s messaging on whether headwinds are transitory or structural. If APA Corporation signals that the current quarter’s declines are mostly timing or price effects with manageable operational constraints, it might temper the bearish tone even without top-line outperformance. Conversely, if guidance or commentary points to extended pressure on volumes or profitability, the bear case—reflected in Sell and Underweight ratings—could gain traction as the Street recalibrates outer-year expectations. That said, the last quarter’s revenue beat of $52.96 million and the maintenance of high gross margins demonstrate that APA Corporation can deliver against near-term consensus under challenging conditions, giving the company scope to surprise on execution; the bearish majority will look for proof points that such resilience is sustainable and not overshadowed by the forecasted year-over-year compression now embedded in expectations.
Ultimately, within this reporting window, institutionally visible directional calls skew bearish, supported by notable firms highlighting near-term earnings compression and uncertainty around the speed of offsetting drivers. The depth and durability of any recovery signal communicated on February 25, 2026, Post Market will be pivotal in reassessing that stance; until then, consensus models, rating distributions, and price targets collectively point to a cautious setup, with downside risks more prominent in directional opinions than upside catalysts in the immediate term.
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