On November 11, spot gold briefly dropped nearly 3%, falling below $4,020 per ounce and touching a low near $4,015, approaching the psychological $4,000 threshold.
Earlier, gold had reached a high of nearly $4,146 before rapidly pulling back. As of publication, international gold prices were hovering around $4,030 per ounce.
The direct reason for gold's pressure is the resurgence of rate hike expectations. On one hand, U.S. October CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, above the 0.3% expected by economists in a Reuters survey, following a 0.6% gain in September. Core CPI came in at 0.3% month-on-month, also above the market's 0.2% expectation. Additionally, U.S. October nonfarm payrolls released last week showed 165,000 new jobs, far exceeding September's 60,000 and market expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Governor Waller directly took a hawkish stance, saying he favors a December rate hike.
However, gold did not show a one-sided decline. Safe-haven demand from the stock market provided some support. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that selling in the artificial intelligence sector triggered a shift in risk appetite, pushing down global sovereign bond yields, and gold still posted a weekly gain of 5.06% last week, its best weekly performance since August. Gold is currently caught in a tug-of-war between "rising rate hike expectations weighing on prices" and "safe-haven demand from the stock market providing support."
Overseas investment banks' assessments have diverged significantly. Goldman Sachs, in its latest report, cut its end-2026 gold price target from $4,650 to $4,150 and its end-2027 target from $5,400 to $4,800, citing the Fed suppressing investor demand and higher real interest rates weakening the appeal of holding gold. UBS remains optimistic, forecasting gold at $4,600 by end-2026, rising to $5,000 by March 2027 and further to $5,400 by September 2027, with the core rationale being that strong central bank gold purchases will limit downside room after gold falls below $4,000.
On the technical side, nonferrous metals industry analyst Liu Hua pointed out that gold may continue to see high volatility and wide-range fluctuations in the short term, with upside resistance at $4,150 to $4,200 and initial downside support around $4,050 and $4,000; if the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields continue to strengthen, a retest of the $3,900 level cannot be ruled out. On the same day, China Gold Coin Group issued a risk warning on precious metal price volatility, reminding investors to participate rationally, operate prudently, and avoid blindly chasing rallies or selling into declines.
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