Central China Securities: Lithium Battery Sector Maintains Upward Momentum, Retains "Outperform" Rating

Stock News11-04

Central China Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report stating that the new energy vehicle (NEV) and lithium battery industries are expected to maintain upward growth momentum during China's 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030). NEV sales growth will significantly outpace the overall automotive industry, with continued penetration rate expansion and export scale growth. The sector's overall competitiveness will further improve, range anxiety will notably ease, and intelligent features will become more widespread. Lithium battery demand will keep growing, with energy storage batteries becoming the primary growth driver. Downstream applications will diversify, technological iteration will accelerate, and the industry will shift toward green and low-carbon development. The firm maintains an "Outperform" rating on the lithium battery sector.

Key insights include: 1. **Sector Outlook**: The 15th Five-Year Plan highlights NEVs and lithium batteries as critical components of advanced productivity, emphasizing their role in green transportation and carbon neutrality. Energy storage batteries will grow faster than power batteries, while market consolidation and technological breakthroughs (e.g., solid-state batteries) will reshape the industry.

2. **NEV Industry**: China has led global NEV production and sales for a decade, with 2021 sales reaching 3.51 million units. Projected 2025 sales stand at ~16 million, reflecting a 46.15% CAGR during the 14th Five-Year Plan. Exports are a key growth driver, with China accounting for 63.7% of global NEV sales in 2024. Challenges include low profitability and brand recognition. Future growth will focus on higher penetration, export expansion, and technological advancements (e.g., extended range and smart features).

3. **Lithium Battery Industry**: China's lithium battery sector reached CNY 1.2 trillion in 2024, dominated by power (61.47%) and energy storage (34.15%) batteries. The country holds 68.79% of the global power battery market (up from 38.35% in 2020) and over 90% of energy storage battery shipments. However, low profitability and short-term overcapacity remain concerns. Future trends include demand growth, energy storage as the main driver, diversified applications, and green transition.

**Risks**: Global economic downturns, weaker-than-expected NEV sales, policy implementation delays, intensified competition, price volatility, and systemic risks.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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