iShares Silver Trust (SLV) surged 5.12% in pre-market trading on Friday, extending a powerful rally in the precious metals complex. The sharp move higher in the silver-tracking ETF came as spot silver prices climbed more than 4.6% on the day, positioning the metal for its strongest weekly performance in months.
The rally in silver has been driven by a confluence of bullish factors. A weakening U.S. dollar—pressured by cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, potential intervention in the Japanese yen, and falling international oil prices—has provided a strong tailwind for precious metals. Easing inflation worries linked to a U.S.-Iran peace deal have further reduced the odds of aggressive monetary tightening, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver. Veteran technical analysts have also pointed to a long-term "cup and handle" breakout pattern in silver, fueling bullish sentiment and attracting momentum-driven buying.
Adding fuel to the fire, Goldman Sachs has flagged that the rapid price recovery has triggered a systemic short-covering mechanism. Institutional positioning in silver had been compressed to near two-year lows prior to the rally, while Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed managed money net long positions at just the 3rd percentile of their two-year range. According to Goldman's futures trading desk, short-term momentum signals for silver flipped this week, initiating forced short covering by systematic strategy funds (CTAs). This mechanical buying pressure has amplified the price surge, with total silver open interest increasing by approximately $2.4 billion during the rebound. However, analysts caution that the physical silver market has not yet shown signs of tightening, and the sustainability of the rally may depend on continued dollar weakness and a further shift in medium-term momentum indicators.
Comments