We are at a pivotal inflection point for e-commerce, the dawn of what is termed the "Agent Commerce" era. Morgan Stanley posits that this trend is not merely hollow hype but is translating into tangible transaction data. While the current adoption rate may appear gradual, the underlying logic is being fundamentally restructured. According to the analysis, Morgan Stanley's latest research report from February 1st indicates that for investors, the most critical figure is this: by 2030, the Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of Agent Commerce is projected to reach approximately $190 billion (base case) to $385 billion (optimistic case). In other words, by that time, AI agents will be driving 10% to 20% of the US e-commerce market share. The current market landscape exhibits a "dual-track" competition: on one side are general-purpose large language model platforms like ChatGPT and Gemini, which boast massive traffic and a young user base; on the other side are specialized AI tools launched by retail giants like Amazon and Walmart, which, despite having a smaller user base, demonstrate extremely high conversion rates. For entities like Google, Amazon, Meta, and Walmart, whichever can capture user mindshare and payment gateways during this early stage stands to gain significant excess returns over the next five years. Large language model platforms are approaching a 50% penetration rate, with younger demographics being the absolute driving force. The report notes that the adoption rate of general AI platforms is steadily climbing. As of January 2026, the monthly usage rates for ChatGPT and Gemini reached 47% and 33% respectively, showing a slight increase from 45% and 32% in October 2025. While this growth is not explosive, it indicates an irreversible trend. More crucially, there is a generational divide. ChatGPT dominates among younger groups, with a usage rate soaring to 65%-75%+ among 16-34 year-olds. In contrast, Gemini's growth is primarily fueled by the 35-44 age group. This "age gap" serves as a clear strategic signal for Google: if it does not quickly bridge the product gap with younger users, its user base could face attrition risks in the coming years. From "Chatting" to "Transaction": Commercial behavior conversion rates are surprisingly strong. The most pressing question for investors is: Are people actually using AI for shopping? The report data provides an affirmative answer. Current commercial activities show a high degree of stability. Approximately 40% to 55% of AI platform users are leveraging these tools for product research and price comparison. More importantly, about 30% to 40% of agent users ultimately complete a purchase. This is a highly potent early signal. If we extrapolate this ratio to the entire US population via penetration rates, it implies that in the past month alone, roughly 18% of Americans completed shopping via ChatGPT, and about 10% via Gemini. Considering that the current product forms are still in their infancy, this early purchase penetration rate foreshadows enormous future growth potential. The Retailers' Counterattack: Small base, high conversion. While general-purpose LLMs hold the high ground in terms of traffic, retail giants are not standing idly by. Tools like Walmart's Sparky, Amazon's Rufus, and Target's shopping assistant, despite currently having monthly user penetration rates only in the low double digits—far below general platforms—exhibit exceptionally strong purchase intent among their users. Report data shows that the purchase conversion actions for retailers' specialized agent tools meet or even exceed those of general platforms. This suggests that for Amazon and Walmart, the opportunity lies in leveraging their vast existing user bases to increase the purchase frequency and average order value of core customers through AI tools. As long as they can drive the adoption of their agent tools, they can effectively reclaim the initiative from the general platforms. Category Landscape: Groceries and FMCG are the "Trojan Horse". Regarding specific product categories, high-frequency consumer goods are becoming the breakthrough point for AI commerce. Data shows that among users shopping via AI platforms, 50% purchased groceries, a proportion that has remained stable since last October. Household items and personal care products follow closely behind. This is a critically important strategic pivot. Morgan Stanley believes the grocery category will be the largest unlock for Agent Commerce over the next 5 years. Whoever masters the high-frequency grocery gateway will master user habits.
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