On May 20, crude oil prices retreated after a brief surge, with the market shifting more focus back to negotiation progress and inventory data. Vatee Forex noted that when market news signals "easing," risk premiums often contract first, leading to price corrections. However, if supply-side disruptions are not fully resolved, the room for decline will also be limited. From a trading structure perspective, crude oil is still awaiting clearer data validation, including changes in inventories, transportation intensity, and marginal changes in refinery operations. Vatee Forex believes that if inventories show a sustained drawdown, market pricing for supply tightness may strengthen again; conversely, it could push prices to gradually cool down within high-level fluctuations. Simultaneously, the impact of oil prices on inflation expectations remains a significant variable. Rising oil prices increase costs and inflation expectations, thereby influencing interest rate and dollar paths. These macroeconomic factors, in turn, alter the allocation pace of commodity funds. Moving forward, close attention should be paid to inventory data and changes in risk premiums. Vatee Forex analysis suggests that before supply and demand signals become clearer, crude oil may continue to operate within a high-volatility range.
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