Brent crude oil climbed on Tuesday to its highest level since early June, as traders assessed threats to maritime transport ranging from the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea to a key Kazakh oil export terminal on Russia's coast.
The global benchmark Brent crude rose 2%, settling around $91 per barrel. This followed a tenth consecutive day of U.S. airstrikes against Iran, initiated after President Donald Trump vowed to make Iran pay for the deaths of American soldiers. Another vessel carrying oil products was also attacked, underscoring Iran's determination to prevent tankers from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Simultaneously, Yemen's Houthi rebels threatened to block Saudi Arabia's maritime traffic in the Red Sea, introducing another layer of risk to oil supplies from the OPEC's largest producer. The Houthi group emailed shipowners advising them against calling at Saudi ports, and at least three tankers have already turned around in the southern Red Sea.
Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group, suggested that if tensions persist for several more weeks, Brent prices could surpass $100 per barrel.
Goldman Sachs Group outlined a more severe scenario: if supply disruptions continue, Brent could exceed $120 per barrel by the fourth quarter, although this is not the bank's base case. Currently, Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent at $80 per barrel for the final three months of the year, though the Houthi threats present an upside risk to this projection.
Beyond the Middle East, supply disruptions have also occurred following a series of attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast. This terminal handles most of Kazakhstan's oil exports; the Central Asian nation sometimes exports close to 1.8 million barrels of crude per day, making it a significant global oil exporter.
Gasoline and diesel futures edged higher, approaching their highest levels since late May.
September Brent crude rose 2%, settling at $91.01 per barrel.
September WTI futures gained 2.3%, closing at $84.34 per barrel.
The August contract expired on Tuesday.
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