Corn: Neutral 1. Market Focus: National corn processing inventory stands at 4.989 million tons, with the cumulative decline narrowing from a high of 37.8% to 8%. The latest pig-to-grain ratio remains below 4, significantly lower than the Level 1 decline warning threshold of 5.1. Inventories for feed soybean meal and corn have both reached new lows for the year. Current spring temperatures are generally higher than usual, leading to the spring sowing period starting 3 to 5 days earlier. Large-scale planting in Northeast China commenced progressively in mid-April. Last week, China Grain Reserves Corporation sold 78,200 tons from reserves, heavily concentrated in its Heilongjiang and Lanzhou branches. The boosted processing profits seen since March have been fully erased, with starch profits hitting a new low for the year, and Heilongjiang corn ethanol profits returning to negative territory. 2. View Summary: Bullish momentum provided insufficient support for yesterday's gains, with spot market follow-through being average. There is a clear risk of a pullback within the week. Support is seen at 2,380 yuan/ton, with no significant resistance level currently apparent above.
Soybean Meal: Neutral 1. Weekly sowing progress is proceeding smoothly. Overnight, CBOT soybeans fluctuated and closed lower. NASS data shows that as of April 19, U.S. soybean planting progress reached 12%, faster than the 7% recorded last year and the five-year average of 5%. Progress is relatively faster in some southern states. World Ag Weather forecasts indicate that over the next week, producing areas will continue to experience a divergent pattern: relatively less rainfall in the Plains and relatively more rainfall in the Midwest and Southeast. Additionally, the USDA Agricultural Weather Outlook warns of potential short-term impacts on crop emergence from localized low temperatures and frost in the Midwest and drier conditions in the Southeast. 2. Dalian soybean meal lacks new catalysts, with trading focus returning to fundamentals. Pressure from arriving South American soybean shipments weighs on valuations, but downside is also supported by cost factors. The near-term outright price is expected to trade mainly within a range. View Summary: Adopt a range-trading approach. The September contract is anticipated to trade within a range of 2,900-3,000 yuan/ton during the day.
Eggs: Neutral to Bearish Spot prices in main producing areas have declined. The spot quote in Guantao, Hebei is 3.60 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day. In terms of marginal changes, the pace of culling older hens has accelerated somewhat, providing temporary support to egg prices. However, medium-term pressures remain significant. The current inventory of laying hens is still at a relatively high level year-on-year. The previous increase in chick placements will gradually translate into additional egg production from June to July. Furthermore, post-Labor Day consumption is expected to gradually weaken, and the upcoming rainy season in the south will affect circulation and storage, limiting the upside potential for far-month contracts. View Summary: The drivers for short-term spot price increases have largely been realized. Near-month contracts can be traded within a range based on support levels, watching for profit-taking opportunities. For far-month contracts, monitor opportunities to establish short positions on rallies.
Live Hogs: Neutral Live hog spot prices are fluctuating. The average spot price in main producing regions was 9.87 yuan/kg yesterday, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day. The market has experienced a clear sentiment-driven recovery recently. The core drivers include a temporary reduction in slaughter volume by leading hog enterprises, rising resistance to lower prices among small-scale farmers, and increased demand from slaughterhouses ahead of Labor Day holiday preparations. Guidance from the latest data on newborn piglets suggests that supply pressure in 2026 may peak around April, with potential sequential improvement in May-June. However, newborn piglet data for January 2026 showed a sequential rebound (+1.3% month-on-month), while the improvements in February (-0.3% MoM) and March (-0.2% MoM) were limited. Even with the significant drop in spot prices in March, the extent of capacity reduction remains relatively contained, suggesting that judgments regarding a cyclical turning point might need to be pushed further back. View Summary: Consider moderately reducing long positions established earlier on rallies. Sellers should wait for better entry points or consider selling deep out-of-the-money call options on the July contract.
Risk Warning: This analysis is based on publicly available information. While accuracy is strived for, no guarantee is made regarding its completeness or accuracy. Trading based on this information is at the individual's own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice and does not consider individual clients' specific trading objectives, financial situation, or needs. Clients should assess whether any opinions or suggestions herein are suitable for their particular circumstances.
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