Precious metals continued their strong performance, with the main contract for Shanghai Silver 2602 closing at 16,210 yuan per kilogram, up 6.06%, while the main contract for Shanghai Gold 2602 settled at 1,000.86 yuan per gram, gaining 2.10%. In terms of precious metals ETFs, the latest data for the week ending December 19 showed holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF at 1,052.54 metric tons and the SLV Silver ETF at 16,018 metric tons.
On the macroeconomic front, U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, surpassing market expectations of 50,000. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. Additionally, October nonfarm payrolls were revised down sharply by 105,000, far exceeding the expected decline of 25,000, while August and September figures were collectively revised lower by 33,000. Average hourly earnings in November grew 3.5% year-on-year, marking the slowest pace since May 2021. The weaker-than-expected employment data may reinforce the Federal Reserve's dovish monetary policy stance.
Inflation-wise, U.S. core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in November, the slowest pace since early 2021 and below the forecasted 3%. Headline CPI increased 2.7%, also below the projected 3.1%. The combination of subdued inflation and higher unemployment has provided strong macro support for precious metals. Meanwhile, in Asia, market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike have already been priced in, with the actual hike having no significant impact on global markets or posing notable downside risks to precious metals prices.
Looking ahead, the long-term bullish case for gold as a dollar-alternative asset remains intact, maintaining an optimistic outlook. Silver prices, driven by physical shortages, have surged to record highs. The gold-silver ratio may see a temporary low correction, but given silver's inherent volatility, investors should remain cautious when buying on dips—paying close attention to position management and strict stop-loss execution—while staying alert to profit-taking risks amid high volatility.
Risk Warning: USD price fluctuations. Investment Advisory License: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1289. Disclaimer: This report is based on publicly available information deemed reliable by the company, but no guarantees are made regarding its accuracy or completeness. Views, conclusions, and forecasts reflect opinions as of the report date and are subject to change without notice. Investors should conduct independent judgment. The company holds copyright and reserves all rights.
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