Following the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil production in the Gulf region, which had been severely curtailed due to conflict in Iran, is expected to largely recover within several months, though a complete return to previous levels may take longer. An estimated 14.5 million barrels per day of crude oil production was offline in April, representing approximately 57% of pre-conflict supply. This reduction was primarily driven by precautionary shutdowns and inventory management rather than physical damage to oil fields. Under normal circumstances, the Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of global oil shipments, meaning a prolonged disruption would significantly impact worldwide energy markets. Assuming no further attacks on oil infrastructure and a secure, sustained reopening of the strait, production could return relatively quickly by utilizing spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, any recovery will be constrained by logistics and well performance. Available capacity for very large crude carriers in the region has decreased by roughly 130 million barrels, a 50% reduction, which will limit how fast producers can transport oil once exports resume. Additionally, extended well shutdowns can reduce flow rates, particularly in low-pressure reservoirs, requiring workovers before production can be fully restored. The longer output remains constrained, the slower the recovery is likely to be. Recovery prospects vary by country: Iran and Iraq face greater risks due to reservoir characteristics, infrastructure challenges, and sanctions, while Saudi Arabia is positioned to increase production more rapidly. Based on average external forecasts, Gulf oil producers may restore about 70% of lost production within three months and approximately 88% within six months. However, a prolonged closure of the strait would increase the risk of lasting damage to supply.
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