A survey released by Morgan Stanley indicates that Apple Inc.'s (AAPL.US) iPhone sales performance is "continuously strong," with user upgrade rates hitting a record high. Analyst Erik Woodring assigned an "Overweight" rating to Apple, with a price target of $315. He stated that based on the survey findings, Apple is expected to be the only major smartphone designer to gain market share this year.
Woodring wrote in a report to clients, "Apple's performance in our AlphaWise Smartphone Survey for late 2025 was exceptionally strong. Specifically, the smartphone upgrade rate in China increased by 9 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the global composite iPhone upgrade rate rose to the highest level in the history of this survey; the proportion of users switching to the Apple ecosystem reached a five-year peak; the average storage capacity desired by users showed robust growth, increasing 18% year-over-year; furthermore, user interest in a foldable iPhone was significant, representing 27% of the sampled installed base."
Additionally, in the late 2025 AlphaWise Global Smartphone Survey, the composite iPhone upgrade rate reached 37%, a 2 percentage point increase year-over-year, with the upgrade rate in China particularly setting a new record high. The survey also noted that consumer awareness and willingness to pay for Apple Intelligence have declined.
Woodring added, "Overall, these results support our forecast for iPhone revenue in fiscal year 2026, which is 3% above market expectations (market expects 3% growth, we forecast 6% growth), and indicate strong potential for Average Selling Price (ASP) growth for a foldable iPhone in fiscal year 2027, exceeding market trends. We project iPhone revenue for fiscal year 2027 to be 4% above consensus, suggesting the strongest consecutive two-year growth for the iPhone in over a decade."
At the time of writing, Apple's shares were up 2.23% in pre-market trading, at $253.54.
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