科技成长初现“绝望性价比”，意味着什么？

华尔街见闻2022-02-13

建议把更多精力用在备战中级别机会上。调整过程中，市场对于科技成长短期验证的要求越来越苛刻，但研究上，却应该勇于看得更长。春节后反弹是兑现的，先涨起来的是稳增长，科技成长继续调整，分化是非常极端的。从我们跟踪的量化指标来看，科技成长板块已初现“绝望性价比”(短期高性价比)：创业板相对沪深300的赚钱效应低位徘徊；国防军工、电气设备、电子的赚钱效应扩散指标已低于10%，处于历史极低值区域。景气科技在...

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Comments

Youn7276
2022-02-14
Youn7276
Ok
zh2021
2022-02-13
zh2021
🈷️
WinSum
2022-02-13
WinSum
很好[微笑]
HCBICE
2022-02-13
HCBICE
[財迷]
赞我的今年账户翻十倍
2022-02-13
赞我的今年账户翻十倍
邏輯改變了吧
chang168
2022-02-13
chang168
Up

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稳增长低估值逻辑未到破坏时，风格挤压犹在。景气科技微观结构矛盾消化势必是一个痛苦的过程。(3)2月景气科技一季报预期尚无法有效形成。计算机和传媒，市场关注度高，但业绩确定性偏低，行业层面的改善尚无明确线索。国防军工，年报验证出现扰动，客观上阻碍了有效的一季报预期形成。新能车和新能源，供给释放景气分化是一致预期，但具体分化的格局，目前尚未形成一致预期。同时，在全产业链大幅超配的情况下，景气分化意味着有一部分持仓中短期缺乏基本面支撑，需要调仓或减仓，这会压制整个板块的中短期表现。明确了成因，如何做展望？看短期，科技成长性价比已明显改善，超跌反弹不需要解决所有问题，可能在“很博弈的时点”出现。但如果中期问题不解决，可能只是弱反弹。超跌反弹的发生，行情从调整阶段进入磨底阶段。看中期，科技股中级别反弹可能需要满足两个条件：1) 美联储紧缩兑现，紧缩预期的演绎边界明确。2) 科技成长景气分化的线索明确，结构性机会是有效反弹的起点。有了展望，如何应对？科技成长超跌反弹随时发生，但参与难度确实不小。对于已经换仓稳增长低估值的投资者来说，短期可能不需要把仓位大幅调回科技。对于坚守科技持仓的投资者，短期也确实不是再换仓稳增长的好时机。稳增长上涨的逻辑还未突破“躁动逻辑”的范畴，3月前还有机会，但暂时无法外推更远。这种情况下，稳增长、低估值、顺周期投资，对后来者可能仍是很不友好的。考虑冲击成本，马上换仓最终也未必有利可图。当前，市场可能会逐步进入到一个僵持期，科技成长快速调整阶段可能很快过去，但应该还有一个磨底的阶段。历史上，景气科技大部分时间是远离高性价比区域的，而一旦多重利空叠加，进入了高性价比区域，就往往有一个钝化段。历史经验，这一次可能也适用。这种情况下，我们建议把更多精力用在备战中级别机会上。调整过程中，市场对于科技成长短期验证的要求越来越苛刻，但研究上，却应该勇于看得更长。哪些行业22H2供需格局、盈利能力有望重新改善，哪些行业22年差23年好，这些问题都偏前瞻，想清楚这些问题，有助于在风险偏好恢复、市场上涨有弹性的阶段选对结构，这可能才是2022年的胜负手。稳增长板块投资按照原计划进行关于稳增长板块的讨论，我们也分享三点思考：(1) 当前对于稳增长板块最乐观的预期其实是地产改善不易，宽信用还要再发力，基建还要提供更多支撑，一季度政策表态和社融信贷的验证相对有保障。这本质上是一种“躁动逻辑”。这是春节后市场反弹，稳增长板块先涨起来的基础。而关于1月社融信贷验证和稳增长板块行情的关系，我们的思考可能和市场主流声音有所不同：1月社融信贷总量强 + 结构上有瑕疵，指向稳增长有效果，但效果还不够，政策仍需继续发力。而周五公布的央行四季度货币政策执行报告，也指向宽信用需要再接再厉，这意味着稳增长的“躁动逻辑”还有进一步演绎的空间。(2) 对稳增长预期和验证的要求还是要严格一些,不是不可以线性外推，但要审慎评估。因为，增量买入稳增长的投资者，有相当一部分来自于科技和消费投资经理的换仓，这部分投资者对设定的换仓条件一定是更严格的。另外，机构投资者换仓短期已经伤害了科技成长的赚钱效应，这使得市场总体偏弱势，风险偏好受压制，这种时候也不宜期待稳增长板块有太大涨幅。(3) “买预期，卖兑现”操作建议不变，一旦外推宽信用不确定性明显增加，或者稳增长效果的验证，开始比政策催化的验证更重要，稳增长板块的股价阻力就可能明显增加。所以，稳增长板块投资按照原计划进行，只做春季躁动。两会后，消费和科技景气分化线索的重要性将明显提升。本文来源：申万宏源策略，原文标题《科技成长初现“绝望性价比”，成因、展望与应对——申万宏源策略信息速评20220213》","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9095066553,"gmtCreate":1644789881173,"gmtModify":1676533960478,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577393549070429","authorIdStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095066553","repostId":1123664260,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9095011915,"gmtCreate":1644767501254,"gmtModify":1676533959856,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"htmlText":"🈷️","listText":"🈷️","text":"🈷️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095011915","repostId":1123664260,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9095091440,"gmtCreate":1644760660119,"gmtModify":1676533959267,"author":{"id":"3582540923206106","authorId":"3582540923206106","name":"WinSum","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3582540923206106","authorIdStr":"3582540923206106"},"htmlText":"很好[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"很好[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"很好[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9095091440","repostId":1123664260,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9092744896,"gmtCreate":1644747982630,"gmtModify":1676533958607,"author":{"id":"3568697814695599","authorId":"3568697814695599","name":"HCBICE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4851c4a27e84de19dd126ece72f2e29","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3568697814695599","authorIdStr":"3568697814695599"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092744896","repostId":1123664260,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9092740510,"gmtCreate":1644743802156,"gmtModify":1676533958431,"author":{"id":"3569581951650623","authorId":"3569581951650623","name":"赞我的今年账户翻十倍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1d63378f07d4231f465c7cd27356410","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569581951650623","authorIdStr":"3569581951650623"},"htmlText":"邏輯改變了吧","listText":"邏輯改變了吧","text":"邏輯改變了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092740510","repostId":1123664260,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9092712242,"gmtCreate":1644728190130,"gmtModify":1676533957363,"author":{"id":"4095222248421940","authorId":"4095222248421940","name":"chang168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b9f00f515067205a87a2a93dddcea18","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4095222248421940","authorIdStr":"4095222248421940"},"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9092712242","repostId":1123664260,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":209,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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