On January 13, HX COLDCHAIN (01641) experienced a "roller coaster" ride on its first day of trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: it opened nearly 60% higher in the morning session, surged to a high of HK$19.7, but ultimately closed at HK$12.3, only slightly above its issue price. For a company that had previously seen its public offering oversubscribed by 2,309.25 times and attracted intense market attention, such a closing performance inevitably surprised some market participants. However, for those familiar with the recent IPO ecosystem in the Hong Kong stock market, this is not an isolated case. Since the revival of the Hong Kong IPO market, substantial "stagging" profits have attracted a flood of retail investors, and the practice of cashing out immediately upon allotment, either in the grey market or on the listing day, has become commonplace. Besides this technical selling pressure causing new stock prices to retreat on their debut, the market on the 13th was also affected by macro factors such as Federal Reserve uncertainty and geopolitical risks, leading to heightened risk aversion in the Hong Kong market, with the three major indices also showing a pattern of opening high and closing low, collectively amplifying the volatility of the new stock's price.
If short-term price fluctuations reflect market sentiment and capital games, then a company's long-term value is rooted in its industry prospects and fundamental strengths. For HX COLDCHAIN, the brief volatility driven by non-fundamental factors not only fails to damage its long-term logic but instead provides rational investors with an opportunity to scrutinize its true value more deeply. Therefore, for potential investors, the most pertinent question remains: does the current stock price level fully reflect the true value of HX COLDCHAIN, or is there an investment opportunity arising from valuation mismatch?
From an industry perspective, the growth certainty of the cold chain track is prominent. As a critical link connecting production and consumption, cold chain logistics is a core carrier for unleashing consumption potential and smoothing supply chain circulation, with its long-term growth becoming increasingly clear, supported by both policy and demand. According to the "2025 Cold Chain Logistics Industry Market Size and Leading Enterprise Analysis" released by the Qianzhan Industry Research Institute on January 22, 2026, the market size of China's cold chain logistics industry in 2024 was approximately 540 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.59% over the past five years, with fresh agricultural products being the fastest-growing category. Due to dense population and abundant agricultural resources, the market size growth rate in the central region is higher than the national average. This data can be cross-verified with the 2024 cold chain logistics operation data released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing. The latter's data shows that the year-on-year growth rate of China's cold storage capacity in 2024 was revised up to 11.0%, reaching 253 million cubic meters.
In recent years, the demand side of cold chain logistics has shown a structural explosion: on one hand, new consumption scenarios such as prepared meals and fresh e-commerce are rapidly emerging. Data from multiple industry reports indicate that the market size of China's prepared meal sector reached 485 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%. It is expected to continue growing in the following years, with the market size projected to exceed 749 billion yuan by 2026. As cold chain logistics is fundamental to ensuring product quality and expanding sales reach, its demand continues to be robust alongside the industry's expansion.
On the other hand, the cold chain circulation rate for agricultural products continues to improve. Data from the Cold Chain Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing shows that in 2023, the origin cold chain circulation rates (low-temperature treatment rates) for fruits and vegetables, meat, and aquatic products in China were 23%, 78%, and 80% respectively, while the average level of relevant indicators in developed countries is between 80% and 95%. Among these, the fruit and vegetable category has the most significant room for improvement in its cold chain circulation rate. In short, under the superposition of multiple demands, the long-term growth logic of the cold chain logistics industry is solid.
A robust investment target: solid fundamentals and prominent core advantages. A deeper analysis of HX COLDCHAIN's true value reveals that "low-profile" and "steady" are the most apparent labels for this company, with its core competitiveness rooted in deep industrial foundations and a unique business model. Firstly, its regional leading position is solid, with scale barriers that are difficult to replicate. Originating from Changsha's Hongxing Village, renowned as the "Number One Village in Hunan," and born from the agricultural industrialization giant Hongxing Industrial Group, HX COLDCHAIN was initially established to meet the cold storage and shop leasing needs of merchants at the Hongxing Agricultural Wholesale Market. After twenty years of development, the company has grown into the largest cold chain storage service provider in central China and Hunan Province, with its business radiating across eight provinces nationwide. In terms of core assets, the company's two storage bases in Yuhua District, Changsha, have a total designed capacity of over 1 million cubic meters and an available capacity of over 230,000 tons, accounting for 18.2% of Hunan Province's total available cold chain capacity. This area is a core logistics hub in Changsha, adjacent to the Hongxing Agricultural Wholesale Market, reducing the transportation radius by over 30% compared to peers, with significant land resource scarcity. In terms of market share, the company holds a dominant 54.7% share in Hunan's frozen food shop leasing service market, far exceeding competitors and forming a solid regional monopoly advantage.
Secondly, its unique business model creates high customer stickiness and high profitability. Based on deep insights into merchant needs, HX COLDCHAIN has created a unique operational model of "front shop, back warehouse, on-site storage, real-time transaction," seamlessly integrating the "back-end" function of storage with the "front-end" sales of shops. This model delivers dual value to merchants: first, it reduces comprehensive costs, as the bundled rental price for storage and shop is lower than separate leases, effectively alleviating merchant operational pressure; second, it enhances operational efficiency, reducing merchant inventory turnover days and significantly improving real-time transaction response speed. While effectively enhancing merchant transaction efficiency and convenience, this model also generates extremely high customer stickiness—data shows that in the first half of 2025, nearly 80% of customers used both storage and leasing services, with the shop occupancy rate consistently exceeding 94% and the renewal rate maintained above 90%. In terms of profitability, from 2022 to the first half of 2025, the company's gross profit margin consistently remained above 50%, reaching 52.8% in 2024, while the average gross profit margin for the domestic cold chain storage industry during the same period was only 28.7%. The net profit margin remained stable between 33% and 38%, demonstrating strong operational resilience.
Thirdly, high dividend attributes are prominent, with robust cash flow supporting long-term development. Beyond its strong operational fundamentals, HX COLDCHAIN's high dividend feature further enhances its investment appeal. Since 2022, the company has cumulatively distributed approximately 240 million yuan in cash dividends, with dividend payout ratios of 35%, 38%, and 40% for 2022-2024 respectively, averaging 37.7%, significantly higher than the average dividend level in the Hong Kong stock market. Regarding financial health, the company's asset-liability ratio has consistently remained below 35%, standing at 33% in the first half of 2025, with no interest-bearing debt, indicating a robust financial structure. Net cash flow from operating activities has been consistently positive, continuously covering net profit and capital expenditures, providing solid support for the continuation of the dividend policy and business expansion.
Growth potential awaits discovery, with regional expansion opening the ceiling for value. However, viewing HX COLDCHAIN merely as a high-dividend stock clearly underestimates its growth potential. The prospectus mentions the use of IPO proceeds: the company plans to allocate 57.5% (approximately HK$145 million) to build a new processing plant and expand frozen food storage warehouses over the next four years, equipped with processing equipment and systems to provide frozen food processing services. Approximately 19.7% (around HK$50 million) will be used to seek strategic acquisitions and partnerships over the next four years to perfect industrial chain integration and consolidate its position in the full cold chain ecosystem. It is understood that HX COLDCHAIN has already developed a comprehensive, full-range cold chain service matrix: starting from storage business, in trunk line transportation and loading/unloading segments, the company has cooperated with third-party logistics service providers, equipped with professional refrigerated truck fleets, equipment, and real-time tracking systems; in inventory management consulting, packaging, labeling, and quality inspection segments, the company also provides a series of value-added services, and is expected to engage in strategic cooperation with upstream suppliers like logistics service providers and downstream players like prepared food manufacturers in the future, deepening the integrated industrial chain service model.
Regarding the central market, which is the next focus for deeper efforts, the company is not entirely unprepared: public reports indicate that in recent years, the major shareholder, Hongxing Industrial Group, has made multiple deployments in the central market, building the largest modern agricultural product trading platform in central-south China—the Hongxing Global Agricultural Wholesale Center—establishing an agricultural product circulation network capable of reaching six central provinces and 280 million consumers. Information from the Changsha Land Resource Online Trading System on December 30, 2025, showed that a commercial service facility land parcel ([2025] Changsha No. 083) covering 135,518.82 square meters in Baima Town, Yuhua District, with a plot ratio ≤2.0, was acquired at the reserve price of 193 million yuan by Hunan Hongxing Da Shichang Agricultural Products Co., Ltd. (whose major shareholder is also Hongxing Industrial), potentially for agricultural product circulation, cold chain logistics, or supporting commercial development, further promoting urban-rural integration and rural revitalization. Although the final development schedule for this commercial land is unclear, often "production and operation are part of the same game," the major shareholder's mature network channels and ready-made customer resources will serve as the most powerful endorsement for HX COLDCHAIN's expansion plan.
Investment opportunity under valuation mismatch. The current average PE-TTM for the cold chain logistics sector in Hong Kong and A-shares is 15-20 times, with a PB of 2.0-2.5 times (Wind data, January 2026). As of January 22, 2026, after a significant rebound of nearly 20%, HX COLDCHAIN's stock price corresponds to a PE-TTM of only 11.59 times and a PB of 0.85 times, significantly below the industry average, indicating a clear valuation discount.
Some industry analysts suggest that the current discount may stem from two main aspects: first, a liquidity discount applied by the Hong Kong market to regional companies; second, investor concerns about the uncertainty of expansion outside the home province. However, HX COLDCHAIN possesses the dual attributes of stable cash flow assets and high-certainty growth. In the short term, a gross margin above 50% and a dividend payout ratio above 37% provide a solid safety margin; in the long term, expansion in the central market and industrial chain extension open the ceiling for growth. The current stock price does not yet fully reflect the company's asset value, profit resilience, and growth potential, exhibiting significant characteristics of a value gap. As the company steadily expands in the central market, continues to deliver on its high dividend policy, and subsequent financial reports further verify its profitability, the market will gradually recognize its true value. The present moment represents the starting point of value discovery and a golden allocation opportunity.
In conclusion, for investors seeking steady growth, the volatility triggered by short-term market sentiment might be a rare opportunity to position in this regional cold chain leader.
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