Pre-market market movements.
On Thursday, November 5, US stock index futures were mixed in pre-market trading. As of press time, Dow futures rose 0.64%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.20%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.50%.
As of press time, Germany's DAX index rose 0.57%, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.76%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.72%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.57%.
As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 1.03% to $89.03 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 1.88% to $96.40 per barrel.
Market News
US layoffs in October fell 71% year-over-year, the lowest for the same period since 2023. Data from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. showed that US companies announced 43,994 job cuts last month, down 71% from a year earlier. In the same period last year, announced October layoffs hit a more than two-decade high. Challenger data also showed that US employers said they planned to hire nearly 445,000 people last month, up 57% year-over-year and the highest for any October since at least 2009. The increase in hiring plans was driven entirely by staffing demand for the holiday shopping season.
US Republicans may launch a vote as early as next week to impeach Defense Secretary Hegseth. According to reports, many Republican lawmakers and allies are blaming US Defense Secretary Hegseth for election losses. They believe Hegseth played a major role in persuading Trump to attack Iran, yet had no exit strategy and no plan to manage the inevitable political consequences. At present, Republican leaders in Congress, as well as many colleagues, are still unwilling to directly blame Trump for their predicament. House Republicans are expected to vote within days on directly impeaching Hegseth.
The Houthis demand $51 billion, leaving Saudi Arabia facing a difficult choice as it seeks a truce. According to reports, after the Houthis attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and seized a strategic chokepoint at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi Arabia proactively contacted the Houthis to try to learn what price would be required to end hostilities through negotiations. The response was: $51 billion.
Strong AI server demand drives Hon Hai's October revenue up 46% year-over-year. Hon Hai reported that October revenue rose 46% year-over-year to NT$1.31 trillion (about $39.7 billion), reflecting the continued buildout of global AI infrastructure and still-strong market demand for Nvidia servers. Analysts said Hon Hai is expected to extend its strong growth momentum into the fourth quarter. September revenue rose 38% year-over-year to a record NT$1.16 trillion, driving third-quarter revenue up 47% to NT$3.03 trillion, beating market expectations by 7%. With Vera Rubin shipments gradually ramping up and favorable IT industry seasonality, Hon Hai's growth momentum is expected to continue into the fourth quarter.
Wall Street is sharply debating whether AI stocks are already oversold, while Goldman Sachs says a Democratic victory could actually accelerate capital expenditure. Institutions are divided on the sharp selloff in AI-related stocks. Goldman Sachs believes AI stocks have recently been "sold out," valuations have fallen noticeably, and positioning structure could improve after election uncertainty fades, potentially prompting tech giants to accelerate data center investment earlier to avoid future regulatory changes. JPMorgan, by contrast, warned that concerns over AI financing and commercialization could limit any short-term rebound. At the market level, with the election over, the high volatility reflected by the VIX may not persist; if volatility falls quickly, major indexes with AI weighting near half could benefit.
The market digested the midterm election results, and US Treasury yields fell to eight-week lows. On Thursday, as investors believed that a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections could lead to tighter fiscal restraint, which would benefit the bond market, long-term US Treasury yields fell to eight-week lows. According to Tradeweb data, Treasury yields fell broadly across maturities. Among them, 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields touched eight-week lows of 4.837% and 5.229% intraday, respectively, before rebounding slightly, though they remained lower on the day. The two-year Treasury yield, after falling to a two-month low on Wednesday, was last trading slightly above that low.
Individual Stock News
Arm Holdings (ARM.US) beat expectations on both revenue and profit, but its guidance for next quarter was lackluster, sending shares down nearly 4% pre-market. Arm reported its latest quarterly results for the period ended September, with revenue of $1.443 billion, up 27% year-over-year, and adjusted net profit of $566 million, up 36% year-over-year, both beating Bloomberg consensus estimates. Operating margin was 44.2%, licensing and other revenue was $773 million, up 50% year-over-year and a record high for the same period, while data center royalties doubled again year-over-year and became a core highlight. However, the company's revenue guidance for next quarter of about $1.47 billion, while above the analyst average estimate of $1.4 billion, fell short of some top estimates of $1.5 billion, and licensing revenue was also slightly below expectations. Guidance that only "slightly beat expectations" disappointed investors, and combined with weak business outlook from customer Qualcomm, Arm shares fell nearly 4% pre-market.
Qualcomm (QCOM.US) reported better-than-expected Q4 revenue, but handset chip revenue plunged 26%, sending shares down nearly 9% pre-market. Qualcomm announced after the close on November 4 its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results for the period ended September 27: non-GAAP revenue of $10.442 billion, down 7% year-over-year, and non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.17, down 28% year-over-year, both slightly beating Wall Street expectations. By business segment, handset chip revenue plunged 26% year-over-year to $5.137 billion, below market expectations and the biggest drag; automotive chip revenue surged 89% year-over-year to a record quarterly $1.990 billion, while IoT revenue rose 4%, partially offsetting the handset contraction. What truly unsettled the market was guidance: the company expects next-quarter EPS of $2.15 to $2.35, with the midpoint of $2.25 below the expected $2.32, and warned that supply chain costs including wafers, packaging and testing, and memory are "rising across the board." Its shares fell nearly 9% at one point pre-market.
AppLovin Corporation (APP.US) saw both Q3 revenue and net profit hit record highs, sending shares surging more than 19% pre-market. AppLovin delivered a comprehensively better-than-expected scorecard after the close on November 4: third-quarter revenue of $2.185 billion, up 55% year-over-year; net profit of $1.439 billion, up 72% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $1.842 billion, up 59% year-over-year with a margin as high as 84%. Revenue, net profit, and adjusted EBITDA all reached quarterly record highs. Its strong AI advertising monetization capability continued to deliver, and the board simultaneously approved an additional $3.2 billion buyback authorization, bringing total buyback authorization to $3.6 billion as of the end of October. With both earnings and shareholder returns positive, the company's shares surged more than 19% pre-market, becoming one of the few bright spots on the AI application side that day.
Toyota (TM.US) Q3 operating profit rose 34%, beating expectations, sending shares up more than 8% pre-market as it raised guidance. Toyota reported second-quarter results for July to September, with operating profit surging 34% year-over-year to 1.127 trillion yen, far exceeding the market expectation of 992 billion yen, marking the first profit increase in six quarters. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 449.6 billion yen, up 24% year-over-year. Growth was mainly driven by strong demand for hybrid models, especially in North America, and favorable foreign exchange from a weaker yen. Despite a global sales decline and weakness in China, stable sales in Japan and North America were enough to support profit improvement. The company sharply raised its full-year operating profit forecast to 3.9 trillion yen from 3.4 trillion yen, expanded its buyback ceiling to 1.3 trillion yen, and resolved to cancel 1.2 billion shares. Its shares rose more than 8% pre-market.
Sony (SONY.US) Q2 operating profit rose 45%, beating expectations, sending shares up nearly 5% pre-market as it raised guidance. Sony reported fiscal 2026 second-quarter results, with operating profit up 45% year-over-year to 622.3 billion yen (about $3.95 billion), significantly beating market expectations. Revenue was 3.43 trillion yen, up 10.3% year-over-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 449.6 billion yen, up 24% year-over-year. Strong box office for the "Spider-Man" film and a robust gaming business were the main drivers. The company also raised its full-year guidance, lifting its operating profit forecast to 1.87 trillion yen from 1.72 trillion yen, raising its net profit forecast to 1.33 trillion yen, and increasing its full-year dividend per share forecast to 35 yen from 25 yen, up 40% year-over-year. With both performance and returns strong, its shares rose nearly 5% pre-market.
Lumentum (LITE.US) will report earnings after the close tonight, with the continued optical communications boom awaiting confirmation. Lumentum will release third-quarter results after the close on November 5. The market consensus expects revenue of $1.248 billion, up about 138% year-over-year, and adjusted earnings per share of $4.19, up about 307% year-over-year, extending the strong boom. The company's revenue already rose 109% year-over-year last quarter, with a gross margin of 49.3%, and improving visibility in high-speed optical components and optical circuit switching orders was the core driver. However, with the optical communications sector broadly weaker pre-market, including Lumentum and Marvell both down more than 3%, the market will scrutinize its delivery pace and margin resilience, and watch for disruptions from downstream pacing against high-base growth.
IREN (IREN.US) will report earnings after the close tonight, with AI computing power and mining as its two main storylines. IREN will release third-quarter results after the close on November 5. The market expects revenue of $220 million, up about 48% year-over-year, and earnings per share of -$0.24, swinging from profit to loss year-over-year, under US-GAAP accounting. As a representative company transforming from Bitcoin mining to AI computing infrastructure, the company is facing the direct impact of tighter data center regulation after the Democratic victory, and its shares already fell more than 10% in the previous trading day. Investors will focus on its AI computing capacity deployment progress, access to power resources, and financing capability to judge the certainty of its transition path amid policy headwinds.
Meta Platforms (META.US) euro bonds rose above par immediately after listing, with a record 62 billion euro order book. Compiled data showed that the six maturities in Meta's bond issuance all rose in Thursday quotations, with even bid quotes above par. Banks involved in underwriting completed the 9 billion euro (about $10.1 billion) six-part bond sale on Wednesday, with each tranche priced slightly below 100 euros per 100 euros of face value. The price gains followed Meta's record bond issuance. The order book for the deal reached 62 billion euros, far exceeding the 31 billion euro record set by Anheuser-Busch InBev a decade ago.
Microsoft (MSFT.US) reportedly refused a multi-billion-dollar expansion deal with UK AI unicorn Nscale. According to reports, Nscale, the UK's highest-valued AI startup, failed to reach a potential multi-billion-dollar new agreement with Microsoft, posing a new challenge to its plan to pursue a $35 billion listing. According to three people familiar with the matter, Microsoft declined to more than double the scale of an existing data center computing lease contract for facilities in Texas. That means Nscale must find new customers for the data center or potentially lose billions of dollars in future revenue.
Apple (AAPL.US) is said to be cutting internal AI budgets. According to reports, Apple is reducing its budget for employee use of artificial intelligence as part of cost-cutting measures, even as the company still seeks to place AI at the center of its operations. People familiar with the matter said that last month Apple quietly lowered the daily spending cap for some engineers using AI models to $200 from $300. These people said Apple is now planning further cuts to some engineering teams' budgets, with daily limits potentially as low as $100.
Goldman Sachs and Apollo are in talks to sell $40 billion in SpaceX AI chip financing. People familiar with the matter said the two companies have begun approaching potential buyers for the multi-tranche financing. SpaceX has said the deal structure is intended to keep the debt off SpaceX's balance sheet and is the largest GPU financing arrangement on record. People familiar with the matter said that in some cases investors were asked to buy shares of up to $500 million before the formal syndication process began, in order to complete the deal as quickly as possible. Syndication distribution is expected to launch soon.
Key Economic Data and Event Preview
Beijing time 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31.
Beijing time 21:50: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks on stablecoins and safe-haven currency exchange rates.
Beijing time 22:10: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks.
Beijing time next day 00:30: 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks.
Beijing time next day 02:00: ECB President Lagarde and Governing Council member Dolenc speak.
Beijing time next day 05:00: Canadian Finance Minister Champagne releases the federal budget.
Beijing time next day 08:00: 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks.
Earnings Preview
Friday morning: IREN, Cloudflare (NET.US), Airbnb (ABNB.US).
Friday pre-market: Moderna (MRNA.US).
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