According to Woofun AI, the Federal Reserve has decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4%, a macro policy stance that directly caused BTC to come under renewed downward pressure after a brief rebound.
At this policy meeting, although most members supported maintaining the status quo, two committee members, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, raised clear objections. Notably, these two members had been aligned in the September decision when all members voted in favor of a rate hike, but this time they advocated for a further 0.25 percentage point increase, revealing internal divisions over the rate path. This policy divergence has brought additional uncertainty to the market, leaving investors facing a more complex game-theoretic situation when interpreting the Fed's signals.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that swings in policy expectations often map directly onto price volatility in crypto assets, especially against the backdrop of a lack of clear rate-cut guidance, where capital flows tend to become more cautious. From the market reaction, BTC's brief rally failed to form a sustained breakout and quickly fell back. This price action reflects the market's sensitive response to expectations of tightening macro liquidity.
Although rates were left unchanged, the voices of hawkish members reinforced expectations that rates will remain elevated, dampening enthusiasm for going long on risk assets. The more critical variable is that policy divergence could extend the timeline for monetary policy normalization, making it difficult for the market to form a consensus expectation of easing.
Looking ahead, divisions within the Federal Reserve may continue to weigh on market sentiment. This is the moment, following the September rate hike decision, when uncertainty over the policy path has once again come to the fore. Investors need to closely monitor upcoming economic data and members' statements to judge the ultimate direction of the rate path.
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