ASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day

seekingalpha2021-08-04

Summary ASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program. My medium-term expectations for EUV sales ...

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Comments

AllenKee
2021-08-07
AllenKee
King of the king
Ew_SG
2021-08-06
Ew_SG
What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?
dent
2021-08-04
dent
Hi
- Maskcollect:
  ?
美股社区
2021-08-04
美股社区
Fantastic
ngchris
2021-08-04
ngchris
Maybe its time for ASML management to consider splitting the stock to take advantage of the continuous high demand of their products.
- Johnjohnn:
  Fully agree
- Erictrw:
  Commented
JoHo
2021-08-04
JoHo
Like & comment please. Thanks a lot!
- gkwok1902:
  Please Like and comment
- Cam20:
  Ok

Leave a comment

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: Strong Momentum Should Lead To Higher Revenue Expectations At Upcoming Investor Day\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-04 10:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444504-asml-strong-momentum-should-lead-to-higher-revenue-expectations-at-upcoming-investor-day><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.\nMy medium-term expectations for EUV sales ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444504-asml-strong-momentum-should-lead-to-higher-revenue-expectations-at-upcoming-investor-day\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"ASML","symbol_name":"阿斯麦","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4444504-asml-strong-momentum-should-lead-to-higher-revenue-expectations-at-upcoming-investor-day","article_id":"1123853854","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123853854","pubTimestamp":1628045254,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was im","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"translate_title":"ASML：强劲的势头应该会在即将到来的投资者日带来更高的收入预期","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nASML recently reported Q2 2021 earnings that were quite good, while the order intake was impressive, and also announced a new share buyback program.\nMy medium-term expectations for EUV sales were confirmed by the company, which means that ASML will certainly raise its 2025 revenue estimates at its upcoming investor day.\nThe stock has reached consecutive new all-time highs in recent months, but there is still upside in the short term.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nASMLNV(ASML) continues to be one of the best semiconductor stocks for long-term investors and the upcoming investor day can be an important catalyst for a higher share price.\nI have been bullish on ASML since my first article was published on the company last March, even though I’ve taken some profits recently because this stock was my largest holding and I wanted to diversify my portfolio a little bit.\nSince then, the company has reported earnings related to Q2 2021, that continued to show a great operating performance, and my growth expectations were upgraded due to bullish comments from the company.\nRecent Earnings\nIn Q2 2021, ASML reported strong revenue and earnings growth, showing that its operating momentum continues to be quite strong. Its revenues increased by 21% YoY to €4 billion, which was slightly below estimates, while its net income was around €1 billion and EPS was €2.52 (+41% YoY), ahead of sell-side expectations.\nDuring the quarter, ASML’s net systems sales amounted to €2.9 billion, while its Installed Base Management sales were €1.1 billion. This revenue from Installed Based Management was above the company’s guidance of around €900 million and is justified by the current situation in the semiconductor industry (the chip shortage) that is pushing customers to software upgrades to improve productivity of the systems.\nIn this last quarter, ASML has recognized revenue fornineEUV units, compared tosevenunits in the previous quarter, even though it has delivered 10 units to customers and will recognize revenue for the remaining unit in the next quarter. EUV revenue represented 45% of its system sales in the quarter, compared to 36% in the previous quarter, and shows that EUV should be its major growth source in the next few quarters.\nAt this pace, ASML should increase the number of EUV units delivered in 2020 compared to the previous year (it delivered 31 EUV units), but it may miss my expectation of about 38 units delivered this year if deliveries do not ramp a little bit up in the next two quarters.\nSource: ASML.\nASML’s gross margin of 50.9% was above its prior guidance, mainly due to software upgrades that weren’t expected. Its gross margin outlook for the full year is between 51-52%, compared to 48.6% reported in 2020, another support for earnings growth in coming quarters.\nRegarding its net bookings, they were close to €8.3 billion, of which €4.9 billion is related to EUV systems, which is a reflection of the strong demand that currently exists in the semiconductor industry. This represents a great increase in bookings compared to the previous quarter (€4.7 billion in Q1), which is not totally surprising considering the recent announcements by its major customers TSMC(TSM) and Intel(INTC) of new factories and increased capex plans for the next couple of years, of which lithography machines are critical elements.\nBeyond that, while the majority of orders for EUV units come from Logic customers, this quarter ASML had the greatest order intake from Memory customers, most likely from Micron Technology(MU) and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCF), which is important to diversify its customer base that still is relatively concentrated regarding EUV units. Moreover, investors should also be aware that ASML is not selling EUV units in China, which could represent another growth source in the future if, eventually, the U.S.-China political relationships improve, even though I think that is unlikely at this stage.\nGoing forward, the company raised its 2021 guidance and now expects net revenue growth of about 35% (previous expectations were for 30% annual revenue growth) and a gross margin between 51-52%. ASML has also guided for EUV revenue growth of about 35% YoY, which corresponds to some 39-40 units, thus the company is expecting to deliver a higher number of units in the second half of the year than in the previous six months, justified by its push to improve its manufacturing and supply chain capabilities.\nAs I’ve discussed in a previous article, ASML was somewhat constrained to grow its EUV production and has made some efforts to increase production in the coming years. This was confirmed in the earnings call, with the company saying that it expects to deliver some 55 units in 2022, growing to over 60 units in 2023.\nI’ve forecasted in that previous analysis that ASML would grow its EUV sales by aroundfiveunits per year after 2022 and reach unit sales of around 70 units by 2025. This now seems to be a conservative estimate and ASML may easily beat my expectations of 70 units and around €11 billion in revenue from EUV by 2025, as demand for its systems is clearly very strong right now.\nSource: ASML and author’s calculations.\nCapital Returns & Investor Day\nBeyond strong growth and profitability, another positive factor for a higher share price has been its capital return policy, given that ASML has a very good history both through dividends and share buybacks.\nThis trend is not expected to change much over the long term and was reinforced recently. Indeed, as I’ve predicted in a previous article, the company increased its share buyback program to €9 billion, to be completed by the end of 2023, substituting immediately the previous program.\nThis is a strong increase from its previous share buyback program of €6 billion that was to be completed this year (ASML completed €5.2 billion of this program), showing that ASML has a solid financial position that enables it to invest in the future of its business through R&D and capex, but also return significant amounts of capital to shareholders.\nSource: ASML.\nASML is delivering impressive results and returning even more capital to shareholders, leading its stock to reach consecutive new all-time highs during the past few months. Despite this, there is still upside and this may become more evident in its upcoming investor day, where the company will update investors about its future scenarios regarding revenues and earnings.\nIndeed, ASML has scheduled an investor day on 29 September 2021, where it will certainly raise its medium-term targets compared to the targets set in 2018. Its current revenue target is for a range of €15-24 billion in annual revenues by 2025, which is clearly outdated, considering that ASML should reach revenues of about €19 billion this year.\nAs I’ve said in previous articles, I expect ASML to increase its revenue target to a medium-level of around €30 billion or higher by 2025, a much higher level than current sell-side consensus' expectation in 2025 (€26.1 billion). Therefore, this investor day could be another catalyst for a higher share price in the short term, as sell-side estimates will most likely increase following this event. This could be an important driver for a higher share price in the next 3-6 months.\nConclusion\nASML has reported another good quarter with the strong order intake being the most impressive factor in my opinion. This is clearly a very bullish factor for ASML’s business in the next few years and a good support for higher revenue expectations in the medium term. I expect ASML to increase its revenue range at its upcoming investor day, which may be a positive catalyst for its share price in the coming months, and therefore remain bullish on ASML.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":893721746,"gmtCreate":1628301880885,"gmtModify":1703504777569,"author":{"id":"3569988593900730","authorId":"3569988593900730","name":"AllenKee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9b7c66c6095fb53e32f6c529b45a869","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569988593900730","authorIdStr":"3569988593900730"},"htmlText":"King of the king&nbsp;","listText":"King of the king&nbsp;","text":"King of the king","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893721746","repostId":1123853854,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":893921827,"gmtCreate":1628231036869,"gmtModify":1703503613081,"author":{"id":"4091249718205820","authorId":"4091249718205820","name":"Ew_SG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091249718205820","authorIdStr":"4091249718205820"},"htmlText":"What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?","listText":"What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?","text":"What is the target price for next 5 years? $1000?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/893921827","repostId":1123853854,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":807401341,"gmtCreate":1628047137383,"gmtModify":1703500230983,"author":{"id":"3574392084255465","authorId":"3574392084255465","name":"dent","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54b2a08f8905d05e3d00b78582bf531","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574392084255465","authorIdStr":"3574392084255465"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807401341","repostId":1123853854,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5421125,"gmtCreate":1628047949697,"gmtModify":1663231903654,"authorId":3573541793112375,"author":{"id":3573541793112375,"idStr":"3573541793112375","authorId":3573541793112375,"name":"Maskcollect","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23310297beaa406149b1f7c2e2384dc5","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03-3","templateUuid":"44212b71d0be4ec88898348dbe882e03","name":"President Tiger","description":"The transaction amount of the securities account reaches $1,000,000","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"93.24%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":807401341,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":807576154,"gmtCreate":1628046659678,"gmtModify":1703500219217,"author":{"id":"3563679013796521","authorId":"3563679013796521","name":"美股社区","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9760bfc44d79d203d95bf2625cbe526b","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563679013796521","authorIdStr":"3563679013796521"},"htmlText":"Fantastic&nbsp;","listText":"Fantastic&nbsp;","text":"Fantastic","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807576154","repostId":1123853854,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":807548003,"gmtCreate":1628045852502,"gmtModify":1703500204152,"author":{"id":"3572005609122539","authorId":"3572005609122539","name":"ngchris","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76fa13deb76ef9b61305ed927b5c3290","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572005609122539","authorIdStr":"3572005609122539"},"htmlText":"Maybe its time for ASML management to consider splitting the stock to take advantage of the continuous high demand of their products.","listText":"Maybe its time for ASML management to consider splitting the stock to take advantage of the continuous high demand of their products.","text":"Maybe its time for ASML management to consider splitting the stock to take advantage of the continuous high demand of their products.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807548003","repostId":1123853854,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5422195,"gmtCreate":1628056400905,"gmtModify":1663231908038,"authorId":3576491127300046,"author":{"id":3576491127300046,"idStr":"3576491127300046","authorId":3576491127300046,"name":"Johnjohnn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4915eff6e74b30b32df99de166e08340","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":807548003,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Fully agree","text":"Fully agree","html":"Fully agree"},{"id":5420917,"gmtCreate":1628046386522,"gmtModify":1663231902332,"authorId":4089204845499250,"author":{"id":4089204845499250,"idStr":"4089204845499250","authorId":4089204845499250,"name":"Erictrw","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/fcdc9ed8292df9fabad4205d70971b50","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":807548003,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Commented","text":"Commented","html":"Commented"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":807555325,"gmtCreate":1628045364367,"gmtModify":1703500194682,"author":{"id":"3571654919705737","authorId":"3571654919705737","name":"JoHo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6abe4a1fabaa50223737e93c50ec182","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3571654919705737","authorIdStr":"3571654919705737"},"htmlText":"Like &amp; comment please. Thanks a lot!","listText":"Like &amp; comment please. Thanks a lot!","text":"Like & comment please. Thanks a lot!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/807555325","repostId":1123853854,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5420927,"gmtCreate":1628046413982,"gmtModify":1663231902334,"authorId":3573733574332120,"author":{"id":3573733574332120,"idStr":"3573733574332120","authorId":3573733574332120,"name":"gkwok1902","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-2","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Master Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 100","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.02.05","exceedPercentage":"80.59%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":807555325,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Please Like and comment","text":"Please Like and comment","html":"Please Like and comment"},{"id":5421649,"gmtCreate":1628051995781,"gmtModify":1635160493732,"authorId":3586053412837856,"author":{"id":3586053412837856,"idStr":"3586053412837856","authorId":3586053412837856,"name":"Cam20","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037da9ce01a8e834173bfb42cccaa40f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":807555325,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":65,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1123853854"}