A report from a securities firm indicates that in June, the papermaking industry continued its strategy of combining production stoppages with price increases, leading to a significant rise in the price of containerboard and corrugated paper during the traditionally slow season. In early June, major production bases of a leading company raised prices by 50-100 yuan per ton, followed by 21 other companies in mid-June with increases ranging from 50 to 200 yuan per ton. The scope and magnitude of these price hikes are unusual for the off-season in recent years. Major industry players coordinated large-scale maintenance shutdowns to reduce supply. Key production bases from several leading firms executed intensive stoppage plans from late May through June, affecting various paper grades including corrugated and containerboard. This has further improved the supply-demand balance, providing fundamental support for rising paper prices.
The main viewpoints from the analysis are outlined below.
Real Estate Data Remains Under Pressure with Gradual Policy Support
From January to May 2026, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China reached 313.2 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. Cumulative sales value amounted to 2.9366 trillion yuan, down 13.5% year-on-year. As of June 25, 2026, transaction volume for commercial housing in 30 major cities was 4,346 units, a 22% decline year-on-year, with the transaction area at 427,600 square meters, down 16% year-on-year. The cumulative area of newly started housing construction stood at 179.29 million square meters, falling 22.6% year-on-year. The cumulative area of completed housing was 140.87 million square meters, a decrease of 23.4% year-on-year. From January to May 2026, cumulative sales at large-scale building materials and home furnishing markets reached 548.5 billion yuan, down 4.01% year-on-year. In May 2026 alone, sales at these markets were 128.7 billion yuan, representing a 2.86% year-on-year increase. The building materials and home furnishing prosperity index rose by 3.1% year-on-year and 11.7% month-on-month. In June 2026, the real estate market continued its recovery trajectory, supported by ongoing policies. Core cities maintained relatively high activity in the secondary housing market, while the primary market remained structurally fragmented. As policies related to urban renewal, quality housing construction, and housing provident fund optimization continue to take effect, the foundation for market stability is expected to strengthen further.
Papermaking: Corrugated Paper Prices Rise as Leading Firms Curtail Supply
As of June 25, 2026, the daily average prices for Chinese hardwood pulp and softwood pulp were 4,425.53 yuan and 4,742.31 yuan per ton, representing year-on-year changes of +7.96% and -18.99%, respectively. The daily offshore prices for ARAUCO softwood pulp (Silver Star) and ARAUCO hardwood pulp (Star) in the main Chinese port market were $670 and $590 per ton, down 6.94% and up 5.36% year-on-year, respectively. Month-on-month, they were flat and down 3.28%, respectively. From January to May 2026, China's apparent consumption of wood pulp accumulated to 171.86 million tons, a 7.08% year-on-year increase. May's single-month consumption was 33.79 million tons, down 2.56% year-on-year and month-on-month. Production of Chinese hardwood pulp and chemi-mechanical pulp was 626,000 tons and 438,000 tons, up 35.21% and 13.47% year-on-year, respectively. Imports were 724,300 tons and 124,400 tons, up 10.36% and 0.38% year-on-year but down 2.46% and 20.4% month-on-month, respectively. Pulp inventories at Qingdao Port stood at 1.521 million tons, down 25,000 tons month-on-month but up 11.3% year-on-year. Inventories at Changshu Port were 630,000 tons, down 20,000 tons month-on-month but up 18.9% year-on-year.
In June 2026, the paper industry persisted with its dual approach of production halts and price increases, resulting in a notable uptick for containerboard and corrugated paper against the seasonal trend. Price hikes initiated in early June by a major producer's ten bases were followed by 21 other companies in mid-June. The breadth and scale of these increases are rare for the off-season in the past three years. In the second week of June, the price per ton for containerboard and corrugated paper rose by 35 yuan and 48 yuan week-on-week, respectively. The price of corrugating medium has climbed approximately 11% from its low point in April. In the cultural and white cardboard paper segment, several major producers announced a synchronized price increase of 200 yuan per ton for coated paper, uncoated woodfree paper, and white cardboard series effective June 20. Coordinated large-scale maintenance shutdowns by industry leaders have tightened supply. Major bases from several top firms implemented intensive stoppage plans from late May through June, covering multiple paper grades, which has further refined the supply-demand dynamic and underpinned the price increase.
Packaging: Stable Downstream Demand and Accelerated Industry Upgrade
From January to May 2026, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 20.60214 trillion yuan, a 1.4% year-on-year increase. In May 2026, year-on-year retail sales for beverages, tobacco & alcohol, cosmetics, and daily necessities by enterprises above a designated size grew by 6.1%, 4.8%, 2.5%, and 1.6%, respectively. As of June 25, 2026, the price of tinplate was 5,900 yuan per ton, slightly higher than the previous month. On June 25, the settlement price for aluminum was 3,132 yuan per ton, down 16% month-on-month, influenced by supply and demand factors. As of June 25, the Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $75.26 per barrel, a 24.42% decrease month-on-month. On the same date, the settlement price for spot polyethylene (general purpose) futures in China was 9,483 yuan per ton, down 12.73% month-on-month, while the settlement price for polypropylene (fiber grade) was 8,888 yuan per ton, down 11.24% month-on-month.
Consumer Goods: Emotional Value Consumption Emerges as New Trend
June 2026 saw three key developments in the consumer goods sector. First, a Chinese pop culture IP made its debut at the FIFA World Cup opening ceremony, marking the first time a Chinese-original IP has appeared on this global stage. Licensed merchandise sold out immediately upon release, and associated cultural patterns entered the official FIFA product library, representing a breakthrough in commercialization at a top-tier international sporting event. Second, industry consolidation progressed as a company acquired over 30 retail stores, with World Cup-themed product lines launching, accelerating the formation of a closed-loop IP industry chain. Third, the stationery industry is pivoting towards "emotional value" consumption. Leading brands are launching new product lines focused on emotional themes. A major stationery and gift exhibition reported transactions worth 7.83 billion yuan, featuring licensed IPs from global entertainment companies. The industry is shifting from functional consumption to emotional consumption and moving from OEM manufacturing towards developing original brands.
Key Risk Factors to Consider
Potential risks include a weaker-than-expected recovery in the real estate market, slower-than-anticipated restoration of downstream demand, a significant surge in raw material prices, and intensifying industry competition.
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