Abstract
Exelixis will report its Q4 2025 results on February 10, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates company guidance, last quarter performance, and recent institutional views to frame expectations for revenue, profitability, and EPS trajectory.
Market Forecast
The market’s current projection for Exelixis this quarter implies revenue of $603.94 million, an adjusted EPS estimate of $0.76, and EBIT of $214.70 million; the year-over-year growth rates embedded in forecasts are 7.19% for revenue and 78.95% for EPS. Margin expectations point to continued high gross profitability consistent with historical levels and stable to improving net margin versus last year. Exelixis’s main business remains net product sales, supported by a smaller but steady contribution from collaboration services; the near-term highlight is sustained demand in core oncology franchises and operational discipline. The most promising segment is net product revenue at $542.93 million last quarter, with growth supported by ongoing label utilization and market share dynamics; collaboration services contributed $54.83 million and provides incremental upside on milestones and services.
Last Quarter Review
Exelixis’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $597.76 million, a gross profit margin of 96.89%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $194.00 million, a net profit margin of 32.38%, and adjusted EPS of $0.69, with year-over-year growth of 10.79% for revenue and 72.50% for adjusted EPS. Operating execution outperformed expectations as EBIT of $236.54 million exceeded consensus, reflecting cost control and a favorable mix. Main business highlights: net product revenue was $542.93 million and collaboration services revenue was $54.83 million, with net product as the dominant growth engine on a year-over-year basis.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main business: Net product revenue trajectory and profitability durability
Exelixis’s core revenue base is net product sales, which accounted for approximately 90.83% of last quarter’s total. This concentration amplifies sensitivity to prescription trends, pricing, and competitive dynamics in the oncology categories where the company participates. Forecast revenue of $603.94 million this quarter assumes modest sequential improvement from $597.76 million and 7.19% year-over-year growth, suggesting sustained commercial momentum without requiring outsized price or volume expansion. Given the last quarter’s 96.89% gross margin, profitability durability is tied less to cost of goods and more to operating expense discipline and commercial efficiency. Provided no abrupt shifts in competitive share or unexpected rebate dynamics, net product revenue should continue to anchor margin resilience. A key swing factor is whether demand patterns seen late last quarter carried through the period, which would support a revenue mix favorable to operating leverage and EBIT delivery near the $214.70 million forecast.
Most promising business: Expansion catalysts in the commercial portfolio
The most promising growth lever within the portfolio remains the scale of net product sales at $542.93 million last quarter, which sets a robust base for incremental gains. Small increases in absolute prescriptions or expanded utilization in eligible patient populations can translate into noticeable top-line growth given the existing scale. Year-over-year EPS growth of 78.95% implied by forecasts highlights the operational leverage that can accrue when revenue trends moderately outpace expense growth. Collaboration services, at $54.83 million last quarter, acts as a complementary driver; while smaller, it offers upside from milestones and partnered programs that could intermittently boost both revenue and EBIT without materially altering the long-run margin profile. The near-term opportunity lies in reinforcing commercial depth where the company already has established demand, which tends to translate into steady, lower-volatility contributions to quarterly results.
Factors with the biggest impact on shares this quarter: Margins, cadence of demand, and operating leverage
Investor attention is likely to focus on whether gross margins remain near the 96.89% level and whether net margin can sustain or improve from the last quarter’s 32.38% as revenue scales into operating expenses. The revenue cadence across the quarter and any signs of inventory dynamics or channel normalization can influence how investors extrapolate future quarters, especially given the relatively close sequential step-up implied by consensus. Operating leverage remains a central narrative: if sales and marketing and R&D spending normalize at a pace below revenue growth, EBIT near $214.70 million should be achievable, supporting the $0.76 EPS estimate. Conversely, any signal of elevated commercial spend or timing shifts in R&D outlays could compress near-term EPS without changing the trajectory of the top line. Clarity on expense pacing will likely be a key determinant of post-print stock reaction.
Analyst Opinions
Among recent institutional viewpoints over the past six months, bullish perspectives dominate. Buy-leaning calls were reiterated by Truist Financial and Goldman Sachs, and a series of supportive notes from William Blair underscored constructive expectations tied to the company’s portfolio and late-stage assets. Hold or neutral views from RBC Capital, Barclays, and Bank of America emphasize a balanced stance, but the ratio of supportive to cautious notes skews in favor of the bullish side. The bullish camp highlights consistent commercial execution, visibility into core revenue streams, and the potential for favorable read-through to EPS given expense control and gross margin stability. Goldman Sachs’s reiterated Buy and Truist Financial’s Buy both reflect confidence in revenue resilience and operating leverage into the Q4 print, while William Blair’s positive commentary points to strategic positioning aligned with oncology treatment dynamics that can underpin forecast growth. Overall, the majority opinion anticipates a solid in-line to modest-beat setup on revenue and EPS, with a focus on the sustainability of margin trends and incremental catalysts in the pipeline that can further support sentiment after February 10, 2026.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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