市场对做空美元已经厌倦，美元多头将迎来高光时刻？

金十数据2021-07-28

未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的更多是交易过度拥挤，而不是货币的走势方向。不出所料，对美元压倒性地做空成为了今年的“痛苦交易”之一。与世界第二大储备货币欧元，甚至世界上交易量最大的一篮子货币相比，美元自1月以来上涨了约3%。但...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

蚊香策士
2021-07-29
蚊香策士
可以買美元了
晓MIIN
2021-07-29
晓MIIN
?
嘉豪9191
2021-07-29
嘉豪9191
哦
Sen001
2021-07-29
Sen001
[財迷]
- Sen001:
  [财迷]
WuJude
2021-07-29
WuJude
厭倦多空？就勇往直前！
人类高质量油物
2021-07-29
人类高质量油物
來吧

Leave a comment

107

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123886822?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-07-28 22:51","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1123886822","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"市场对做空美元已经厌倦，美元多头将迎来高光时刻？","media":"金十数据","content":"<div>\n<p>未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n\n在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。\n对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的更多是交易过度拥挤，而不是货币的走势方向。\n不出所料，对美元压倒性地做空成为了今年的“痛苦交易”之一。\n与世界第二大储备货币欧元，甚至世界上交易量最大的一篮子货币相比，美元自1月以来上涨了约3%。\n但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/78639\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"jssj","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场对做空美元已经厌倦，美元多头将迎来高光时刻？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场对做空美元已经厌倦，美元多头将迎来高光时刻？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 22:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/78639><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n\n在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。\n对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的更多是交易过度拥挤，而不是货币的走势方向。\n不出所料，对美元压倒性地做空成为了今年的“痛苦交易”之一。\n与世界第二大储备货币欧元，甚至世界上交易量最大的一篮子货币相比，美元自1月以来上涨了约3%。\n但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/78639\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/78639","article_id":"1123886822","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123886822","pubTimestamp":1627483875,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"jssj","name":"金十数据"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n\n在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。\n对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jin10.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"The market is tired of shorting the US dollar, and the bulls of the US dollar will usher in the highlight moment?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6919ee5316f9c77a4a6b8b0704adec8","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n\n在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。\n对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的更多是交易过度拥挤，而不是货币的走势方向。\n不出所料，对美元压倒性地做空成为了今年的“痛苦交易”之一。\n与世界第二大储备货币欧元，甚至世界上交易量最大的一篮子货币相比，美元自1月以来上涨了约3%。\n但现在考验来了。鉴于美联储和欧洲央行下半年的政策轨迹不同，投机钟摆很可能会向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n美国商品期货交易委员会每周发布的期货市场头寸显示，坚守16个月的美元净空头上周消失了。\n自2016年3月以来，市场似乎首次基本恢复平衡。去年由于疫情爆发，美元需求出现飙升，但在美联储宽松政策、央行互换协议和全球风险偏好回归的综合作用下，美元需求逆转，迅速减弱。\n此外，本月剩余美元净空头仓位的平仓迅速而广泛。三菱日联金融集团全球市场研究主管Derek Halpenny指出，当你进一步分析CFTC数据时会发现，资产管理公司、机构投资者和杠杆基金所持美元空头头寸的合计降幅为8年来最大。\nHalpenny认为，美元可能从目前的水平适度走强。\n美联储将比其他央行更快转鹰？\nMatthew Hornback和摩根士丹利宏观策略师认为，最近美元价格走势“令人困惑”，是因为市场在美联储正常化、全球经济增长忧虑和通胀上升等多重说法之间摇摆不定。\n他们预计美元将从现在开始走强，因美联储会比欧洲央行更早转向，且美国国债名义收益率和实际收益率开始再次走高。 通胀和全球增长主题不太可能持久。\nPaul Meggyesi和摩根大通外汇团队也认为欧元/美元将进一步下滑，并强调欧洲央行未来可能还会有更多鸽派立场，使“欧元成为类似日元的准永久性融资货币”。\n\n对欧元、美元有何启示？\n接下来，经济基本面或数据意外、海外风险偏好、长期公允价值模型和对冲基金资金流向都将对美元产生一定影响。\n但市场上存在着一种观点，即汇率往往会被过度定价，而且有大量的历史证据表明市场会从一个极端走向另一个极端。\n投机性头寸的完全波动不常发生，但仅在过去4年就发生了三次这种净多头和净空头之间的转换。 从一个极端到另一个极端平均需要16个月的时间，而现在离最近的净空头峰值只过去了6个月的时间。\n不过，最近几周，美国国债收益率大幅下滑，甚至一度回落至纪录低位，欧债走势也比较低迷，这与市场共识相悖。\n此前欧洲央行宣布新的2%的通胀目标，这意味着，欧洲央行更有可能增加而不是减少债券购买，因为中期通胀预测和市场预期仍比这一目标低约0.5个百分点。另外，市场预计，疲软的欧元可能有助于提升低迷的通胀预期。\n这将对欧元带来什么影响？\n欧洲央行经济学家去年末研究了，美联储和欧洲央行这两家央行量化宽松的步伐不同，在多大程度上影响了欧元/美元。\n他们得出的结论是，在疫情爆发后的6个月里，美联储的资产负债表比欧洲央行多扩大了16个百分点，欧元/美元上涨了6%，约占欧元/美元整体变动的三分之二。\n自那以后，这场资产负债表之战已趋于平衡。 在过去9个月里，欧洲央行的资产负债表扩张速度比美联储快了6个百分点，而汇率几乎没有变动。\n仅凭这一点，再加上未来相对的量化宽松速度，货币钟摆很可能开始向美元的方向摆动。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":801212640,"gmtCreate":1627518463580,"gmtModify":1703491450313,"author":{"id":"3556406286176182","authorId":"3556406286176182","name":"蚊香策士","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3556406286176182","idStr":"3556406286176182"},"htmlText":"可以買美元了","listText":"可以買美元了","text":"可以買美元了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801212640","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":801634266,"gmtCreate":1627514293255,"gmtModify":1703491297519,"author":{"id":"3573767135380290","authorId":"3573767135380290","name":"晓MIIN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e223a6a40d05afa03fb58b646e13cd1","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573767135380290","idStr":"3573767135380290"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801634266","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":801697801,"gmtCreate":1627513971203,"gmtModify":1703491285545,"author":{"id":"3575111006123483","authorId":"3575111006123483","name":"嘉豪9191","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18c923a17c09d8365f614d378b3a15b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575111006123483","idStr":"3575111006123483"},"htmlText":"哦","listText":"哦","text":"哦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801697801","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":801852458,"gmtCreate":1627511648574,"gmtModify":1703491221360,"author":{"id":"3584077952141019","authorId":"3584077952141019","name":"Sen001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6443dc6111d144d09291a133ffcb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3584077952141019","idStr":"3584077952141019"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801852458","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5361842,"gmtCreate":1627511671270,"gmtModify":1663231638833,"authorId":3584077952141019,"author":{"id":3584077952141019,"idStr":"3584077952141019","authorId":3584077952141019,"name":"Sen001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af6443dc6111d144d09291a133ffcb94","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":801852458,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[财迷]","text":"[财迷]","html":"[财迷]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":801881814,"gmtCreate":1627508313938,"gmtModify":1703491175668,"author":{"id":"3559755292172737","authorId":"3559755292172737","name":"WuJude","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f6bc6c587f2b7cec20d1acdd07ee3b3","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3559755292172737","idStr":"3559755292172737"},"htmlText":"厭倦多空？就勇往直前！","listText":"厭倦多空？就勇往直前！","text":"厭倦多空？就勇往直前！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801881814","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":801815424,"gmtCreate":1627507561468,"gmtModify":1703491168079,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4089720580683890","idStr":"4089720580683890"},"htmlText":"來吧","listText":"來吧","text":"來吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801815424","repostId":1123886822,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":107,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1123886822"}