A recent analysis from China Securities Co., Ltd. indicates that global television demand experienced a modest recovery during the first half of 2026, with noticeable regional disparities. While Europe and the US saw a slight uptick due to replacement cycles, emerging markets recorded strong growth. In contrast, the domestic Chinese market faced volume contraction, relying on premium product mix shifts for value growth.
On the panel side, the industry observed a trend of declining unit shipments but increasing total display area, driven by larger average screen sizes. Manufacturers in mainland China now command over 70% market share, with BOE Technology and TCL CSOT forming a dominant duopoly. The competitive landscape is consolidating toward top players, with Chinese and Korean brands experiencing divergent fortunes. TCL and Hisense have leveraged premium offerings and global expansion to simultaneously boost both market share and profitability.
Product innovation remains centered on larger screens and the proliferation of MiniLED backlighting, where Chinese brands hold a first-mover edge. Although panel prices retreated in the third quarter, easing cost pressures, the medium-to-long-term outlook suggests further share and margin gains for Chinese panel fabricators and black electric appliance brands.
Demand Dynamics in the First Half of 2026
Global TV shipments posted slight positive growth, buoyed by sports event stocking and channel replenishment. European and American markets saw a weak recovery driven by major tournaments and replacement demand, though persistent inflation and high interest rates limited the rebound's strength. Emerging markets delivered robust expansion, supported by higher penetration rates, deeper channel networks, and increased supply allocation from domestic Chinese brands. The Chinese domestic market saw volumes pressured, with all growth stemming from an upgraded product structure. This shift was clearly reflected in panel shipments, which decreased in units but increased in total area as average screen sizes expanded.
Shifting Competitive Dynamics and Chinese Brand Ascendancy
Industry concentration is intensifying, with smaller brands being squeezed out by cost pressures. The combined share of the top six TV brands rose, and Chinese manufacturers collectively surpassed 40% of global brand share. TCL led shipment growth, intensifying its battle with Hisense for the number two global position, while Korean brands struggled to expand their share. Panel production capacity continues to migrate to mainland China, solidifying the BOE Technology and TCL CSOT duopoly. Chinese brands' share gains are underpinned by iterative advancements in high-end products like MiniLED, localized overseas channel development, vertical supply chain integration, and sustained sports marketing that elevates brand equity. This consolidation trend is expected to persist, allowing Chinese players to further extend their global footprint.
Financial Performance Comparison: Chinese vs. Korean Makers
Earnings disparities between Chinese and Korean companies widened in the first half of 2026. TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual reported synchronized improvements in revenue and profitability, benefiting from a higher mix of MiniLED and large-size products, the cost advantages of in-house panel and module production, and tighter internal expense management. Conversely, Korean manufacturers encountered headwinds. Samsung's TV and home appliance segment swung to a loss in Q2, and LG's TV business managed only a 4.3% operating margin, constrained by fluctuating costs of externally purchased LCD panels, product strategy missteps, and organizational inefficiencies.
Outlook for the Second Half and Beyond
In the short term, the second half of 2026 faces challenging comparables from the prior year's high base, pushing the industry into a phase of stock competition. While overall volume growth is limited in the long run, clear structural opportunities remain. Industry concentration is set to climb further, with Chinese manufacturers and brands poised to capture additional share. MiniLED adoption will continue to rise, with RGB and SQD MiniLED variants moving toward commercialization. On the profitability front, Chinese black electric appliance and panel companies have room for sustained margin expansion, whereas Korean rivals may see their earnings stagnate at lower levels, potentially widening the profit gap further.
Key Risks to Monitor
The global TV market's transition to a stock competition phase poses a demand risk, as mature markets like Europe, the US, and Japan show signs of demand exhaustion, compounded by high inflation eroding consumer purchasing power. Data from Sigmaintell projects global TV shipments of 221 million units in 2025, a 0.7% year-on-year decline, while RUNTIN Tech estimates Chinese shipments at 32.895 million units, down 8.5% annually. This environment is unlikely to change fundamentally in the near term.
Panel price volatility presents another risk. With leading manufacturers reducing inventory and expanding production cuts, supply-demand dynamics have firmed. According to AVC Revo, prices for various TV panel sizes stopped falling in October 2022 and have since seen modest increases. Compared to early October 2022, average prices for 75, 65, 55, 50, 43, and 32-inch panels rose by $72, $73, $52, $40, $17, and $10 respectively by June 2024.
Fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate also factor into the outlook. Long-term currency volatility can alter the strategic positioning of export-oriented enterprises. The USD/CNY spot rate currently sits near 6.7 per data from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, indicating potential short-term volatility in the US dollar.
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