A study from consulting firm McKinsey shows that over the next decade, mass unemployment caused by AI may not be the biggest threat to American workers. The greater challenge will be helping millions of people move into new roles.
The report, released on Tuesday, states that by 2035, approximately 11 million US workers — about 7% of the current workforce — may need to change occupations due to AI's displacement effect.
This means the number of annual occupational transitions in the US could triple over the next decade from its historical average of about 215,000.
McKinsey's analysis points out that this transition will be very difficult for many people, with six out of seven workers needing substantial retraining and facing lower incomes.
The report's authors note that workers are not "interchangeable units." "Even if job opportunities are plentiful, if the skills, qualifications, locations, or pay structures required by these positions differ greatly from their previous jobs, it will still leave millions unemployed," they said.
McKinsey's research finds that full-time employees most likely to be forced to change jobs are concentrated in three major areas: office and administrative support, retail sales, and transportation and logistics. Positions include customer service representatives, cashiers, and warehouse workers.
The report estimates that low-income workers are nearly eight times more likely to need to change jobs than high-income groups.
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