China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 17th consecutive month, official data showed on April 7. The country's gold holdings reached 74.38 million ounces (approximately 2,313.48 metric tons) by the end of March, up by 160,000 ounces (about 4.98 metric tons) from the end of February.
This trend contrasts with recent actions by other central banks. Turkey, Russia, and Poland have all announced sales or plans to sell portions of their gold reserves. Notably, the Central Bank of Turkey reduced its reserves by nearly 120 tons over the past two weeks.
Despite these sales, market analysts suggest the broader pattern of central bank gold accumulation remains intact. A report from the World Gold Council dated April 2, 2026, indicated that global central banks were net buyers of 19 tons of gold in February. Although this figure is below the 2025 monthly average of 26 tons, it marks a recovery from the net purchase of only 5 tons in January. Some analysts view the recent price dip as a "golden opportunity" for accumulation.
On April 7, international gold prices experienced volatility. Spot gold opened higher but later fell to touch $4,620 per ounce. By 16:20, it had risen 0.54% to trade at $4,674.38 per ounce.
**Sales Driven by Specific Needs** Turkey's significant gold sales are primarily a response to energy supply shortages stemming from Middle Eastern conflicts and pressure on the Turkish lira. This two-week reduction is the largest since records began in 2013. Over the past decade, Turkey had been one of the world's most active gold buyers, with its leadership aiming to reduce reliance on US dollar assets. Data shows that as of the end of January, the Turkish central bank held 603 tons of gold, valued at $135 billion.
Data released on April 2 revealed that Turkey's gold reserves fell by 69.1 tons in the week ending March 28, bringing the two-week total reduction to 118.4 tons and total reserves down to 702.5 tons. More than half of these sales were conducted via swap transactions—using gold as collateral to obtain US dollar liquidity, with an agreement to repurchase the gold later. These are short-term financing measures, not permanent divestments.
Analysts note that soaring global energy prices since the outbreak of Middle East conflicts have increased pressure on Turkey, a major energy importer, to make foreign currency payments. Concurrently, rising risk aversion has put downward pressure on the lira, compelling the central bank to intervene to support the currency and enhance market liquidity.
Elsewhere, the National Bank of Poland announced a plan in early March to sell part of its gold reserves to raise approximately $13 billion for defense funding. The Central Bank of Russia began selling gold in January 2026, with the World Gold Council reporting net sales of 9 tons that month and a further 6 tons in February.
**Tactical Moves Versus Strategic Shifts** According to Lin Yan, Chief Macro Analyst at Guolian Minsheng Securities Research Institute, recent gold sales by some central banks appear more "tactical" than "strategic." Key reasons include institutional behavior that follows price trends, where central banks may sell during price consolidation and buy during rallies. Secondly, rapidly expanding fiscal deficits can force central banks to sell gold to meet liquidity needs, as seen in Turkey and Russia. Finally, a seesaw effect can occur between gold and foreign exchange reserves; for instance, rising oil prices can worsen trade deficits and currency depreciation, prompting gold sales to bolster forex reserves.
**Broad Outlook Remains Positive** Over the past four years, central banks have been key buyers in the gold market. Data from the World Gold Council shows that from 2022 to 2024, global central banks purchased over 1,000 tons annually on average—roughly double the average of the previous decade. Even in 2025, when gold prices repeatedly hit record highs, central bank purchases reached 863 tons, accounting for about 17.3% of global gold demand that year.
The recent sales by some banks have not reversed the overall buying trend. The Czech Republic has been a net buyer for 36 consecutive months; China has added to its reserves for 16 straight months, accumulating 44 tons from November 2024 to February 2026; and Uzbekistan has maintained net purchases for five months.
Several financial institutions maintain a bullish outlook on gold. UBS strategist Joni Teves expects gold prices to reach new highs in 2026, viewing recent pullbacks as buying opportunities. UBS forecasts an average price of $5,000 per ounce for 2026, followed by $4,800 in 2027 and $4,250 in 2028.
Goldman Sachs remains a staunch gold bull. In a commodities research report dated March 30, 2026, the firm analyzed reasons for the price correction following the Middle East conflict and reaffirmed its long-term bullish outlook, projecting a year-end target of $5,400 per ounce for 2026. This forecast is supported by three factors: potential upward momentum of about $195 per ounce from normalized speculative positioning; an estimated $120 per ounce boost from expected Fed rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2026; and sustained central bank demand, projected to average 60 tons per month, serving as a core pillar for medium-term prices.
The report also noted that risks are two-sided but skewed to the upside. Short-term downside risks include potential liquidation of macro hedge positions if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist and trigger further equity market adjustments, which could push prices down to $3,800 per ounce in a worst-case scenario. However, medium-to-long-term upside risks are more significant. If current geopolitical events accelerate private-sector diversification into gold and weaken confidence in Western fiscal sustainability, prices could surpass the base forecast, potentially reaching as high as $6,100 per ounce.
Barclays Research, in a recent quarterly global economic outlook report, suggested that the retracement of gold's 2026 gains following the US-Iran conflict presents a reasonable entry point. The bank indicated that the significant increase in central bank gold buying since 2022 is unlikely to fade. Furthermore, with the Federal Reserve having failed to meet its 2% inflation target for four consecutive years, interest rate hikes in 2026 are improbable. Geopolitical risks, ongoing central bank purchases, inflationary pressures from oil price shocks, and the fiscal impact of conflicts are all expected to support gold prices.
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