Abstract
YPF SA will report fiscal second-quarter 2026 results on August 10, 2026 Post-Mkt; consensus implies higher revenue and earnings versus last year alongside stronger operating margins.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, the company’s financial forecast indicates revenue of 6.08 billion US dollars with an estimated year-over-year growth of 35.41%, estimated EBIT of 1.65 billion US dollars with a 260.83% year-over-year increase, and estimated EPS of 3.01 with a 399.45% year-over-year increase. The prior report’s structure points to gross margin resilience and improving net profitability; however, consensus margin forecasts are not explicitly available. The company’s main business outlook emphasizes downstream and midstream operations as the core revenue engine, while upstream exploration and production provides volume leverage. The segment with the most promising growth is midstream and downstream, supported by an estimated revenue contribution of 4.26 billion US dollars and benefits from refinery yields and marketing optimization year over year.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, revenue was 4.95 billion US dollars, gross profit margin was 35.86%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company rose sharply with quarter-on-quarter growth of 169.35%, net profit margin was 8.72%, and adjusted EPS was 1.03, representing 212.12% year-over-year growth. A notable highlight was EBIT of 878.00 million US dollars, beating the prior-year level and signaling expanding operating leverage. Main business performance was led by midstream and downstream with 4.26 billion US dollars of revenue, while exploration and production added 2.02 billion US dollars; other categories, including LNG and integrated gas at 371.00 million US dollars and new energies at 206.00 million US dollars, rounded out the portfolio, though consolidation effects reduced the aggregate.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Midstream and downstream
The downstream and midstream complex remains the company’s primary revenue contributor, anchored by refinery throughput, product mix, and domestic marketing spreads. With prior-quarter revenue of 4.26 billion US dollars from this segment, operating momentum is positioned to benefit from stable demand and incremental pricing normalization. The expected revenue uplift for the quarter, coupled with a favorable EBIT trajectory at 1.65 billion US dollars and EPS of 3.01, implies downstream margin support from higher refining utilization and better crack spreads. Execution on logistics efficiency and product slate optimization is expected to sustain gross margin close to or above the last quarter’s 35.86%, even as input costs fluctuate. Any divergence will largely track international fuel benchmarks and domestic pricing adjustments.
Most promising business: Exploration and production
Exploration and production, which delivered 2.02 billion US dollars last quarter, offers asymmetric upside through volume expansion and productivity gains. Development activity in core basins tends to lift realized volumes and unit economics, providing leverage to the EBIT forecast. The strong forecasted year-over-year growth in EBIT and EPS suggests that lifting costs and field-level efficiencies are advancing, supporting higher netbacks in the quarter under review. While international oil and gas prices are a swing factor, the company’s portfolio appears positioned to capture upside from modest commodity strength and incremental operational improvements. Stable to improving reservoir performance and continued operational discipline could translate into a higher contribution to consolidated margins this quarter.
Key stock price drivers this quarter
Investor attention will likely center on the conversion of robust revenue growth into sustainable margins and cash flow. Consensus-aligned forecasts of 6.08 billion US dollars in revenue and a 1.65 billion US dollar EBIT imply margin expansion, and the ability to hold or improve on the 8.72% net margin from the prior period is pivotal for sentiment. Sensitivity to fuel price policy, crack spreads, and commodity benchmarks could introduce volatility; however, improved operating leverage—evidenced by last quarter’s EBIT of 878.00 million US dollars and forecast step-up—provides a buffer. Capital allocation priorities, including maintenance of working capital discipline and potential debt optimization, may influence equity valuation, especially if cash generation tracks the EPS forecast of 3.01.
Analyst Opinions
Across collected commentary, the majority of published opinions trend bullish, citing the sizeable forecast year-over-year increases in revenue (35.41%), EBIT (260.83%), and EPS (399.45%) as indicators of margin recovery and stronger cost controls. Well-followed institutional viewpoints emphasize that the downstream system is running efficiently and that upstream productivity is improving, aligning with the company’s internal forecast of 6.08 billion US dollars in revenue and 1.65 billion US dollars in EBIT for the quarter. The bullish camp argues that operational execution and favorable refining economics can sustain high-teens operating margins, with additional upside if commodity prices remain supportive and domestic pricing continues to normalize. Skepticism about policy and price volatility exists, but the balance of views expects positive earnings momentum to dominate the print and near-term guidance.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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