Goldman Sachs estimated in a research note released on Thursday that total oil exports from the Gulf region have recovered to roughly 15 to 16 million barrels per day, marking a significant rebound from the conflict-driven trough, although levels still remain well below those seen before the war.
Using two independent estimation methodologies, Goldman Sachs data indicates current export volumes are 7 to 8 million barrels per day lower than before the US-Israel conflict with Iran erupted, but are up 5 to 6 million barrels per day from the low point recorded in March. While the bank’s aggregate figures focus on total Gulf flows rather than transits specifically through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman noted the rebound in exports suggests passage through the strait itself may already be approaching the 8 to 10 million barrels per day range previously estimated by US officials.
Since late February, when the conflict disrupted normal shipping, this vital waterway — which carries roughly one-fifth of global seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas supplies each day — has been undergoing a notable but still incomplete recovery. Goldman Sachs attributed this restoration partly to adaptive measures taken by producers and shipping companies amid ongoing volatility.
The Goldman report specifically highlighted that increased dark fleet shipping, where specialized carriers transit with reduced transponder visibility, and a rise in ship-to-ship transfers indicate market participants have adjusted their logistical strategies to sustain crude flows in a high-risk environment. The bank also stated that in a scenario of sustained Middle East supply disruptions, European natural gas and longer-dated petroleum product contracts hold greater upside price potential than crude oil itself.
This view suggests Goldman believes the more enduring pressure from the conflict will concentrate on downstream segments and related energy markets rather than on crude, which is partially supported by the aforementioned adaptive shipping behaviors. On Thursday, October-delivery Brent crude futures settled at $89.70 per barrel, up 2.12%, ending a three-session losing streak. This followed reports that the Trump administration has no intention of re-accepting the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June.
The June agreement had originally envisioned reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for sanctions relief and allowing Iran access to frozen overseas assets, alongside initiating negotiations on the nuclear issue and ending the war, but collapsed weeks later when Iran attacked vessels. The gradual recovery in Gulf export data, combined with cooling expectations for a near-term diplomatic resolution with Iran, collectively underscores the core tension in current oil markets: supply is progressively recovering, yet geopolitical and military conflicts remain far from resolved.
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