Wedbush has maintained its "Outperform" rating on Apple (AAPL.US) with a $350 price target, implying a potential upside of approximately 35% from last Friday's closing price, while highlighting four key areas the stock must address to reach this target by 2026. Meanwhile, based on preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research's Market Monitor report, Apple led the global smartphone market in 2025, capturing a 20% market share with a 10% year-over-year increase in shipments, securing the top position among the top five brands. Samsung ranked second in 2025 with a 19% market share and a 5% year-over-year growth rate. Xiaomi maintained third place with a 13% market share, while Vivo ranked fourth with a 3% year-over-year growth. This marks the first time in years that Apple has overtaken Samsung to reclaim the crown as the world's largest smartphone manufacturer. According to Counterpoint data, the last time Apple held the top position in global smartphone sales dates back to 2011. Apple also led in fourth-quarter smartphone shipments, accounting for a record-high one-quarter of global shipments, followed by Samsung with a 17% share. Counterpoint Research stated that global smartphone shipments grew for the second consecutive year in 2025, increasing by 2% year-over-year, primarily driven by growth in premium demand and improved momentum in key emerging markets. An analyst team at Wedbush, led by Dan Ives, stated, "For Apple and Cook, this is a pivotal year, as they will finally lead Apple into the era of the AI revolution. Apple's stock has been sluggish this year, with investors fearing it would be another 'wait-and-see' year for the company—delaying its ability to monetize the already-begun fourth industrial revolution. We believe Wall Street is underestimating Apple's potential for 2026, as we think Cook and his team will ultimately push forward aggressively with their AI strategic roadmap." The analysts added that while Apple faces numerous variables this year, they have identified four strategic focal points the company must execute in 2026, which could potentially add about $100 to the stock's price per share. "For Apple, this is a 'prove-it' year, and we see significant upside from current levels, as Apple remains a core stock in our AI 30 and one of our favorite tech picks for 2026," the analysts said. Regarding the partnership with Google Gemini, the analysts believe that Google Gemini, under Alphabet (GOOGL.US), will become Apple's exclusive AI partner, and Google's recent court victory against the U.S. Department of Justice has undoubtedly paved the way for this objective. The analysts added that as the consumer AI revolution advances at Apple Park, Wall Street is eagerly anticipating a formal flagship partnership between the two in the AI domain. Concerning the timely launch of a newly upgraded AI-powered Siri, the analysts noted that both developers and consumers are patiently awaiting the release of the significantly improved Siri around March/April. They indicated that this personal assistant will be Apple's response to machine learning models like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Perplexity. The analysts anticipate that Apple will launch an AI-driven subscription service for its consumer base later this summer. Based on preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research's Market Monitor report, Apple is projected to lead the global smartphone market in 2025, achieving a 20% market share with a 10% year-over-year increase in shipments, ranking first among the top five brands. Commenting on Apple's performance, Senior Analyst Varun Mishra said, "Apple's growth in 2025 is attributed to its expanding market share and growing demand in emerging and mid-tier markets, along with a stronger product portfolio. The iPhone 17 series gained significant market traction in the fourth quarter following a successful launch, while the iPhone 16 continued to demonstrate strong sales performance in markets like Japan, India, and Southeast Asia. The upgrade cycle from the pandemic period has reached an inflection point, with millions of users needing to replace their devices, further bolstering Apple's dual-growth momentum." Ives and his team believe Apple's iPhone sales in 2026 have the potential to exceed Wall Street's current expectations. The analysts stated, "We are seeing particularly strong performance in China, and this momentum should persist, providing sustained growth for Apple towards the end of the iPhone 17 cycle and with the launch of the iPhone 18 this September." The analysts believe that an increase in Average Selling Price (ASP) and the eventual launch of a foldable phone (likely during the iPhone 18 product cycle in September) will be key factors. They noted that due to rising global production costs, the ASP for iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models is expected to increase by approximately $100, which has become a concern for product gross margins. Commenting on the market outlook, Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak said, "The global smartphone market is expected to slow in 2026 due to DRAM/NAND flash shortages and rising component costs, as chipmakers prioritize AI data centers over smartphones. The trend of rising smartphone prices has already begun to emerge. Against this backdrop, we have revised our 2026 shipment forecast down by 3%. Although supply shortages will pressure shipments, Apple and Samsung, with their stronger supply chain capabilities and premium market positioning, are likely to remain resilient, while OEMs focused on the lower-price segment will face greater pressure." Addressing external speculation, Ives and his team stated, "Rumors are increasing that CEO Cook will step down within the next year. We disagree with this narrative and believe Cook will remain CEO of Apple at least until the end of 2027, as this period is crucial for the company to formulate and execute its broader AI revolution strategy." The analysts pointed out that Apple has finally begun adopting an offensive strategy, bringing more AI talent into its ecosystem to further enhance the capabilities of Apple Intelligence, including the external hiring of renowned AI researcher Amar Subramanya.
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