According to data from Sublime China Information, the current pricing cycle is characterized by a cautious macro atmosphere and persistently low fluctuations in crude oil futures prices. The intensification of sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States, combined with a synchronous decline in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, led to a temporary rebound in crude oil futures prices. However, this has not significantly altered the situation, keeping the change rate within negative territory and strengthening the expectation for a reduction in refined oil retail prices. As of October 23, the reference crude oil change rate for the ninth working day in China was -6.93%, indicating an anticipated decrease in gasoline and diesel prices by 300 yuan per ton, with the pricing adjustment window set for October 27 at 24:00. From the crude oil market perspective, Kuwait's announcement regarding potential cancellation of production cuts to address any oil shortages suggests that actual supply disruptions are unlikely. As caution dissipates, there is a risk of oil price decline. With only one working day left until the adjustment, it is becoming increasingly difficult to change the negative fluctuation of the change rate. Therefore, this round of retail price adjustments is highly likely to conclude with a reduction.
Comments