Goldman Sachs released a report on Thursday projecting that gold prices could rise by 14% to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 under its base-case scenario, citing potential upside risks from increased diversification by private investors. In its 2026 commodities outlook report, the bank highlighted that structural demand from central banks and cyclical support from anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts would drive gold prices higher, maintaining its recommendation to hold long positions in gold. Spot gold was trading at $4,324.56 per ounce at the time of writing.
The report also forecasted that copper prices would consolidate in 2026, with an average annual price of $11,400 per ton under its base-case assumption—where tariff uncertainties persist until mid-2026, potentially leading to U.S. tariffs on refined copper by 2027. "Despite recent price gains and our expectation of consolidation in 2026, copper remains our 'most favored' industrial metal, especially in the long term, given electrification (accounting for nearly half of copper demand) driving structural demand growth and unique supply constraints," Goldman Sachs noted. Three-month LME copper was little changed at $11,801.00 per ton, after hitting a record high of $11,952 last week.
For oil, Goldman Sachs predicted further declines in Brent and WTI crude prices, with 2026 averages at $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively. "Unless significant supply disruptions or OPEC cuts occur, lower prices may be necessary post-2026 to rebalance the market," the report added. Brent crude traded at $59.68 per barrel, while U.S. WTI hovered near $55.86. The bank expects oil prices to bottom around mid-2026 as markets anticipate rebalancing, driven by solid demand growth of ~1.2 million barrels per day, further declines in Russian supply amid ongoing sanctions, and slower non-OPEC (ex-Russia) production growth.
"Downside risks dominate our 2026-2027 oil price outlook," Goldman Sachs stated. However, the bank projected a recovery in oil prices by Q4 2027 as markets begin pricing in a return to supply deficits and focus shifts to incentivizing long-cycle production. By late 2028, Brent and WTI prices are expected to gradually rebound to $80 and $76 per barrel, respectively.
For natural gas, Goldman Sachs forecasted European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices at €29 per MWh in 2026 and €20 in 2027 to stimulate additional demand, while U.S. natural gas prices are expected to stabilize at $4.60 and $3.80 per MMBtu in 2026 and 2027, respectively, to support production growth.
The report also warned of declining U.S. power reserve margins due to rapid demand growth and coal plant retirements outpacing renewable and gas capacity additions. "This raises risks of significant price spikes or even blackouts, particularly in localized markets with booming data centers—72% of U.S. data centers are concentrated in just 1% of counties," it added.
Comments