On January 21, A-shares rebounded in volatile morning trading, with the STAR 50 Index surging nearly 3% as technology stocks staged a collective recovery. The half-day turnover reached 1.63 trillion yuan, shrinking by 216.9 billion yuan compared to the previous session. By the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index had gained 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index advanced 0.85%.
Huaxi Securities believes that regulatory counter-cyclical adjustment policies are crucial for avoiding a "fast bull" or "crazy bull" market; these measures do not alter the underlying bullish trend of A-shares but rather help the rally sustain for a longer duration. GF Securities also indicated that index risks are negligible over the next month, and following the resolution of annual report previews in late January, the market is expected to enter its strongest "calendar effect"上涨区间 of the year, making the period from the week before the Spring Festival to mid-March particularly promising for opportunities.
Sector-wise, chip stocks collectively strengthened, led by computing power chips and memory segments, with Haiguang Information hitting a record high, Ingenic Semiconductor securing its second consecutive daily limit-up, and Tongfu Microelectronics among others涨停. The AI application segment rebounded, with Zhewen Interactivity achieving five limit-ups in nine days. The precious metals concept continued its strong performance, with Hunan Silver notching its second straight limit-up. Lithium mining stocks bounced back, with Shenghua Lithium Energy涨停. The oil and gas concept was also active, with Intercontinental Oil & Gas涨停. Additionally, sectors including chemicals, humanoid robots, medical devices, and property saw intermittent strength during the session.
On the downside, power, coal, major consumer staples, and large financial sectors led the declines.
**Hot Sectors** 1. **Chip Stocks Rally Collectively** Chip stocks surged as a group, spearheaded by computing power chips and memory directions. Ingenic Semiconductor recorded its second consecutive limit-up, while Tongfu Microelectronics, Loongson Technology, and China Great Wall were among the涨停 stocks. *Commentary: A Guolian MinSheng research report noted that Agent-related reinforcement learning requires massive CPU resources to construct various tools and environments. Consequently, CPUs often become a bottleneck earlier than GPUs, with their efficiency directly impacting GPU utilization, policy lag, training stability, and the overall convergence speed of RL.*
2. **Precious Metals Sector Shows Strength** The precious metals sector remained robust, with Hunan Silver hitting its second straight limit-up. Shengtun Mining, Zhongjin Gold, Xiaocheng Technology, and Sichuan Gold followed with gains. *Commentary: Spot gold broke above the $4800 per ounce mark, while spot silver surpassed $95 per ounce for the first time, accumulating a 33% gain year-to-date. Both metals continue to刷新 record highs. Guotai Junan Securities believes that against the backdrop of significant geopolitical shifts, gold exhibits strong resilience and safe-haven attributes, recommending an overweight position in gold.*
3. **Lithium Mining Concept Rebounds** The lithium mining concept oscillated but ultimately rebounded. Shenghua Lithium Energy and Dazhong Mining Industry涨停, while Tianhua New Energy, Yongxing Special Materials, Zhongkuang Resources, and Rongjie Co., Ltd. were among the top gainers. *Commentary: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract surged over 5% intraday, briefly breaking through 164,000 yuan per ton. China Post Securities pointed out that AI is driving explosive growth in data center scale. AI data centers feature extremely high and volatile power demands, necessitating energy storage配置 to smooth grid impact and serve as backup power for computing peaks. Overseas energy storage annual growth rates are projected to reach 40%-50% over the next two to three years, becoming a primary growth driver for lithium carbonate demand.*
**Institutional Views** 1. **Industrial Securities: Spring Rally Still Holds Fresh Opportunities** Industrial Securities posits that during the latter half of January's earnings disclosure period, the market will focus on fundamentals for structural adjustments. In the short term, as market sentiment returns to rationality alongside the gradual release of annual report previews, earnings will become a key factor driving the market. A phase of structural adjustment centered on fundamentals is likely, where previously hot sectors face earnings verification, while some undervalued, high-quality sectors may attract fresh capital inflows. February is expected to present a core window for做多, and attention to themes can be heightened again. After the completion of January's earnings previews, February returns to a fundamental quiet period, coupled with ample liquidity approaching the Spring Festival. The period leading up to the Two Sessions represents a core window for market activity, with small-micro cap and growth stocks typically performing better. Market upward elasticity is expected to increase once more during this time.
2. **BOC International: "Spring躁" Rally Faces Short-Term Pressure** BOC International suggests the "Spring躁" rally is testing short-term resistance levels, with the market likely to consolidate while digesting pressure and awaiting new catalysts. The short-term adjustment stems from earlier overbought conditions and情绪冲击 from event disruptions. However, the three core logics behind the AI application行情 remain intact, and the rally is expected to continue. The software application行情 may transition from broad gains to a focus on select stocks, with those possessing strong fundamentals likely to outperform. Against the backdrop of robust demand and rising景气度 for overseas semiconductors, particularly memory chips, A-share semiconductor产业链 stands to benefit significantly.
3. **Oriental Securities: "Indices Adjusting Mildly, Hotspots Rotating" Pattern to Persist Until Spring Festival** Oriental Securities believes the previous unilateral upward trend of the indices has been halted, but the current adjustment is relatively mild, which bodes well for further market gains. On the other hand, active capital is still rotating, attempting to identify directions with better赚钱效应. Sector轮动切换 may continue, and this pattern of "indices adjusting slightly while hotspots take turns performing" is likely to persist until the Spring Festival.
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